Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Abstract

Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.

Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040

“…Our results suggest that the number of MPeM cases is decreasing, with a peak of deaths already reached in 2014–2016 for men and in 1999–2001 for women. This outcome is different from predictions for pleural mesothelioma, whose peak has been predicted to occur sometime around 2020–2024 in Italy [ 7 ]. A potential misclassification between peritoneal mesothelioma and ovarian cancer is possible in women.…”

“…A total of 1417 MPeM deaths were observed in Italy from 1996 to 2016, 992 of which occurred in the period 1996–2010. Considering that in the same period, 12,337 pleural mesotheliomas were observed [ 7 ], MPeM represented 7.4% of all mesothelioma deaths, a result that is higher than the worldwide observed percentage in a comparable time window [ 2 ]. Mean age at death (1996–2016) was 68.7 in men and 67.6 in women, and the male to female ratio was 1.63.…”

Malignant mesothelioma and asbestos exposure in Europe: Evidence of spatial clustering

“…The last survey show that the peak of MM cases is expected in the period 2020-2024. The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MM cases during the next 20 years (2020-2039), and the epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992 (Oddone et al, 2020).…”

Asbestos-Related Malignant Mesothelioma in The South of Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

“…but Iran was still one of the 8 countries (Brazil, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Thailand, and Ukraine) with the highest usage in 2003 [21,26]. With the estimated median latent period of 32 years after the rst occupational exposure, it is obvious that MM is still going to be of a concern in the following decades and it can be expected that the peak has not yet reached in Iran like other countries such as Italy which banned asbestos in 1992 [24,27,28].…”