Predictions of the Maximum Amplitude, Time of Occurrence, and Total Length of Solar Cycle 24

Uzal, Lucas C.; Piacentini, R. D.; Verdes, P. F.

doi:10.1007/s11207-012-0030-9

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The TMLP model also predicts that the length of cycle 24 is 11.0 (95% CI is 8.3 to 12.9) years, which is slightly larger than the fitting results of the four-parameter modified logistic differential equation. The predicted cycle length of cycle 24 is similar with other works, such as 11.33 years of Uzal et al (2012), 11.3 years of Pishkalo (2014), and 11.01 years of Kakad et al (2017b).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

A Model of Sunspot Number with a Modified Logistic Function

Qin

2018

ApJ

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Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative sunspot number or total sunspot number x m , initial cumulative sunspot number x 0 , maximum emergence rate r 0 , and asymmetry α. A two-parameter function is obtained by taking α and r 0 as fixed value. In addition, it is found that x m and x 0 can be well determined at the start of a cycle. Therefore, a prediction model of sunspot number is established based on the two-parameter function. The prediction for cycles 4 − 23 shows that the solar maximum can be predicted with average relative error being 8.8% and maximum relative error being 22% in cycle 15 at the start of solar cycles if solar minima are already known. The quasi-online method for determining solar minimum moment shows that we can obtain the solar minimum 14 months after the start of a cycle. Besides, our model can predict the cycle length with the average relative error being 9.5% and maximum relative error being 22% in cycle 4. Furthermore, we predict the sunspot number Corresponding author: G. Qin qingang@hit.edu.cn 2 Qin and Wu variations of cycle 24 with the relative errors of the solar maximum and ascent time being 1.4% and 12%, respectively, and the predicted cycle length is 11.0 (95% confidence interval is 8.3−12.9) years. The comparison to the observation of cycle 24 shows that our prediction model has good effectiveness.(1) with four parameters, namely, amplitude a, starting time t 0 , rise time b, and asymmetry c. They found that the asymmetry c can be taken as a fixed value and the rise time b is relevant with the amplitude a, so that the function could be reduced to a two-parameter form and the sunspot number could still be fitted well.They found that the amplitude can be estimated at the start of a solar cycle by using the correlation between Sunspot Number Model

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

A Model of Sunspot Number with a Modified Logistic Function

Qin

2018

ApJ

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“…The relationship between rise time to maximum and the largest SSN of a cycle has been used as a prediction tool for solar activity for a long time (Vitinskii, 1965;Du, 2011). Most of the recent articles predicted that the amplitude of the current solar cycle will be lower than 100 (Uzal, Piacentini, and Verdes, 2012;Passos, 2012;Kakad, 2011;Du, 2011, and references therein). From the current amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 (about 70) and results of the above mentioned predictions we assumed that the ISSN will be around 70 -80 in the cycle maximum.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

Kılçık

Özgüç

2013

Sol Phys

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We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot group data since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, H, classes by the Zurich classification], and the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated small and large sunspot group numbers, their sunspot numbers [SSN] and Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of the Cycle 24 should be later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is coming for Solar Cycle 24.

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“…We note that this relation is applied only to annual values. The length of the solar cycle 24 was defined, assuming the minimum of the cycle 24 in 2021 (Uzal et al 2012). For this model, the ascending and maximum phases are considered to be shorter than the descending phase, reflecting the asymmetry of the tilt angle cyclic shape (Hathaway 2010).…”

Section: Reconstruction Of the Hcs Tilt Anglementioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical model of heliospheric cosmic ray modulation on long-term time scale

Asvestari

Usoskin

2016

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) entering the heliosphere are subject to modulation processes due to variable solar magnetic activity. Finding a relationship between cosmic-ray variations and the heliospheric parameters is important for reconstruction of solar activity in the past. Here, we develop a semi-empirical model describing the heliospheric modulation of GCRs in terms of heliospheric parameters such as the open solar magnetic flux, the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet and the polarity of the large scale solar magnetic field. Our model is fitted using annual data obtained for the period 1976-2013, which includes the very weak solar minimum during [2008][2009][2010]. The model shows a good agreement with the data, and therefore, can be used for reconstructions of the modulation potential at different levels of solar activity. The model's validity is also tested using the cosmogenic radionuclides 14 C and 10 Be stored in terrestrial archives. The tilt angle used to fit the parameters in our semi-empirical modulation model is reconstructed by a mathematical model described here.

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Predictions of the Maximum Amplitude, Time of Occurrence, and Total Length of Solar Cycle 24

Cited by 10 publications

References 32 publications

A Model of Sunspot Number with a Modified Logistic Function

A Model of Sunspot Number with a Modified Logistic Function

One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Expected?

An empirical model of heliospheric cosmic ray modulation on long-term time scale

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