Introduction
We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness (ROR) during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non steady state conditions, accounting for the lag time between effect site (Ce) and end tidal (ET) sevoflurane concentrations would improve predictions.
Methods
Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET based and a Ce based prediction. Similarly two predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared to observations with graphical and temporal analyses.
Results
While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (≥ 99%). However, following termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1% to 97%). Although wide, the Ce based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET based predictions. For the ET based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 minutes of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness; 65% awoke within 4 minutes. For the Ce based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 minute of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness; 85% awoke within 3.2 minutes. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce and ET based models.
Discussion
Results confirmed in part our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.