PURPOSE Many individuals perceive their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to be lower than established clinical tools would estimate, yet little is known about the long-term consequences of holding such optimistic beliefs. We evaluated whether lower self-ratings of CVD risk are associated with lower rates of CVD death after addressing potential confounding by an extensive set of social and biologic CVD risk factors.
METHODSWe conducted a 15-year mortality surveillance study of adults aged 35 to 75 years from southeastern New England (n = 2,816) who had no history of myocardial infarction. Baseline evaluation in 1990-1992 included household interview, anthropomorphic measures, and laboratory analyses. Outcomes were obtained using the National Death Index records through December 2005.RESULTS Rating oneself to be at lower-than-average risk for one's age and sex was associated with lower rates of CVD mortality among men (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.3; 95% confi dence interval [CI], 0.2-0.7) but not among women (HR = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.5-1.7). None of the following weakened the fi ndings among men: adjustment for baseline Framingham Risk Score, propensity score adjustment for both social and biologic factors, and censoring the fi rst 2 years of surveillance.CONCLUSIONS Lower self-ratings of CVD risk are independently associated with lower rates of CVD death among men.
INTRODUCTIONR isk perception affects health behavior and emotional well-being among individuals facing a health threat. [1][2][3] When the behavior required to ameliorate the threat is a single event (eg, vaccination), 4 heightened perceptions of risk appear to motivate preventive action. In turn, successful completion of the preventive action facilitates reduction in risk perception. 4 Thus, holding higher risk perceptions can be benefi cial in some health contexts.The threat of cardiovascular disease (CVD), however, requires preventive actions that are not single events; they are multidimensional, ongoing, and effort-intensive. The preventive value of harboring higher perceptions of CVD risk is therefore less clear. An individual's failure to engage and sustain CVD preventive action can exacerbate negative emotions arising from threat perception, thereby leading to dysfunctional coping behaviors. In fact, holding optimistic perceptions of risk, whether through lack of awareness or denial, may protect against fear-related coping behaviors and the physiologic effects of stress that, in turn, can hasten the onset of CVD events. [5][6][7] These benefi ts might explain why so many adults tend to underestimate their personal risk of experiencing a CVD event. [8][9][10][11][12] Given the rapid emergence of genetic technologies that are likely to shape risk perceptions, 13 it is both timely and essential to investigate the long-term health impact of self-rated risk. We conducted a 15-year morRobert Gramling, MD
303SEL F -R AT ED C A R DIOVA SCUL A R RISK AND 15 -Y E A R MORTA LIT Y tality surveillance study of adults who rated their own CVD risk in the early...