Predictive Index Using Receiver Operating Characteristic and Trend Analysis of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Incidence

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The city of Bandung is an endemic area of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Increased cases of DHF in the area have influenced the mortality rate. The number of deaths due to DHF in 2019 was 14 people. AIM: This study aims to analyze the epidemiological determinants and to observe the trend of analysis to project DHF cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used a case-control design. The case population is those who have DFH, while the control population is those who do not have DHF. There were 510 respondents included in this study. Samples were taken using a purposive sampling technique. Epidemiological determinants were analyzed using the Chi-square test and logistic regression, while the trend of the disease was analyzed using exponential smooth analysis. RESULTS: The result of this study showed that education (p = 0.036), the presence of mosquito larvae (p = 0.000), container materials (p = 0.002), water containers (p = 0.025), mosquito nets (p = 0.010), the presence of solid waste (p = 0.002), mosquito repellent plants (p = 0.041), and mobility (0.004). The most dominant epidemiological determinant was the presence of mosquito larvae (odds ratio = 3.2). The predictive index of DHF can predict people who are sick with DHF among the sick population is 68.6%. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the significant epidemiological determinants are education, the presence of mosquito larvae, container materials, water containers, mosquito nets, the presence of solid waste, and mosquito repellent plants. Among those determinants, the presence of mosquito larvae is the most dominant factor. This study also concluded that there will be an increase in DFH cases over the next 5 years. Hence, it is important to increase larvae free index by empowering Kader Juru Pemantau Jentik (JUMANTIK) in Bandung and conducting epidemiological surveillance.

Epidemiological Determinants and Trend Analysis of Dengue Fever Disease

“…This study was conducted in an urban area, so temporary waste bins have been provided by the local government in various places, such as markets, residential complexes, and on the roadside, which aims to make it easier for people to dispose of waste. 26 Breaching the chain of transmission through vector control is one of the effective ways to prevent dengue transmission so that the morbidity rate can be reduced. Environmental manipulation needs to be done to overcome the spread of DHF because the Aedes aegypti mosquito is found in places that are rarely cleaned and rarely monitored.…”

Keberadaan jentik nyamuk aedes aegypti dengan kejadian demam berdarah dengue (DBD)

“…Berdasarkan penelitian di Kota Bandung, habitat perkembangbiakan nyamuk Aedes Aegypti sebagian besar berdekatan dengan tempat aktivitas manusia dikarenakan nyamuk Aedes Aegypti merupakan tipe nyamuk yang menyukai tempat perindunkan yang bersih seperti bak mandi, penampungan air kulkas, tempat air minum hewan dan sebagainya (Sutriyawan, Herdianti, Cakranegara, Lolan, & Sinaga, 2022;Sutriyawan, Wirawati, & Suherdin, 2022). Penelitian lain menyatakan perkembangan nyamuk aedes aegypti dapat meningkatkan insidensi demam berdarah dengue (Pramadani, Hadi, & Satrija, 2020).…”

Pengaruh Ekstrak Bawang Putih (Allium Sativum) Dengan Metode Pemanasan (Black Garlic) Terhadap Larva Aedes Aegypti

“…DBD merupakan penyakit menular yang disebabkan oleh virus dengue melalui gigitan nyamuk Aedes khususnya Aedes aegypti. Penyakit ini juga dikenal sebagai penyakit yang tumbuh paling cepat di dunia, ditandai dengan demam dan pendarahan yang tibatiba, baik di kulit atau di tempat lain di tubuh (Sutriyawan et al, 2022b). Penyakit ini dapat menyebabkan kematian karena perdarahan dan juga gangguan hemodinamika.…”