Predictive model of regional coseismic landslides’ permanent displacement considering uncertainty

Chen, Xi; Hu, Xiewen; Ma, Guotao; Rezania, Mohammad; Liu, Bo; He, Kun

doi:10.1007/s10346-022-01918-3

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…For example, we test a wide range of COV values to identify the most suitable Gaussian distribution that cohesion and friction-angle values could follow. We should stress that although shear strength parameters generally follow a normal distribution [61][62][63] , this assumption may not hold everywhere. Therefore, upon acquisition of site-specific geotechnical analyses that would yield skewed distributions of shear-strength parameters, these would need to be addressed accordingly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For each landslide thickness, we randomly create shear-strength parameters using a Monte Carlo simulation, a commonly used approach for addressing the uncertainty of soil and rock properties in engineering geological problems 63,83,84 . To run the simulations, we estimate the distribution of shear-strength parameters.…”

Section: Back-analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To run the simulations, we estimate the distribution of shear-strength parameters. Ranges of cohesion and friction angle for a given rock or soil unit commonly are represented using a Gaussian distribution [61][62][63] . However, the shape of the distribution needs to be identified because different variances around the mean can lead to large simulation differences.…”

Section: Back-analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating weakening on hillslopes caused by strong earthquakes

Xi,

Tanyas,

Lombardo

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

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The weakening of hillslopes during strong earthquakes increases landsliding rates in post-seismic periods. However, very few studies have addressed the amount of coseismic reduction in shear strength of hillslope materials. This makes estimation of post-seismic landslide susceptibility challenging. Here we propose a method to quantify the maximum shear-strength reduction expected on seismically disturbed hillslopes. We focus on a subset of the area affected by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake. We combine physical and data-driven modeling approaches. First, we back-analyze shear-strength reduction at locations where post-seismic landslides occurred. Second, we regress the estimated shear-strength reduction against peak ground acceleration, local relief, and topographic position index to extrapolate the shear-strength reduction over the entire study area. Our results show a maximum of 60%–75% reduction in near-surface shear strength over a peak ground acceleration range of 0.5–0.9 g. Reduction percentages can be generalized using a data-driven model.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Back-analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Back-analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating weakening on hillslopes caused by strong earthquakes

Xi,

Tanyas,

Lombardo

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…This method remains one of the most used, physics-based, models to simulate co-seismic permanent displacements in terms of failure probability of slopes. It calculates the critical acceleration (A c ) that sufficiently reduces the shear resistance to trigger ground motion, when seismic intensity exceeds the seismic strength of the slope (Jibson et al 2004(Jibson et al , 2006Jibson 2011;Chen et al 2019;Jin et al 2019;Xi et al 2022). The traditional and modified forms of the ND method have been successfully implemented to evaluate co-seismic landslides triggered by the 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge, 1999 M w 7.5 Chi-Chi, 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan, 98 earthquakes in Greece, 2013 M s 7.0 Lushan, Kumaun Himalaya, 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha, and Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquakes (e.g., Jibson et al 2000;Wang and Lin 2010;Chen et al 2014;Chousianitis et al 2014;Yuan et al 2016;Shinoda and Miyata 2017;Jin et al 2019;Kumar et al 2021;Maharjan et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Traditional and modified Newmark displacement methods after the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake (Eastern Tibetan Plateau)

Djukem,

Fan,

Braun

et al. 2024

Landslides

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The Newmark displacement (ND) method, which reproduces the interactions between waves, solids, and fluids during an earthquake, has experienced numerous modifications. We compare the performances of a traditional and a modified version of the ND method through the analysis of co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake (Sichuan, China). We implemented 23 ND scenarios with each equation, assuming different landslide depths, as well as various soil-rock geomechanical properties derived from previous studies in regions of similar lithology. These scenarios allowed verifying the presence or absence of such landslides and predict the likely occurrence locations. We evaluated the topographic and slope aspect amplification effects on both equations. The oldest equation has a better landslide predictive ability, as it considers both slope stability and earthquake intensity. Contrarily, the newer version of the ND method has a greater emphasis on slope stability compared to the earthquake intensity and hence tends to give high ND values only when the critical acceleration is weak. The topographic amplification does not improve the predictive capacity of these equations, most likely because few or no massive landslides were triggered from mountain peaks. This approach allows structural, focal mechanism, and site effects to be considered when designing ND models, which could help to explain and predict new landslide distribution patterns such as the abundance of landslides on the NE, E, S, and SE-facing slopes observed in the Luding case. KeywordsCo-seismic landslides • Earthquake intensity • Topographic amplification • Site effects • Slope aspect • Focal mechanism effect Landslides Recent Landslides Recent LandslidesSpringer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

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Characteristics and susceptibility assessment of the earthquake-triggered landslides in moderate-minor earthquake prone areas at southern margin of Sichuan Basin, China

Wen

Ling

et al. 2022

Bull Eng Geol Environ

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Predictive model of regional coseismic landslides’ permanent displacement considering uncertainty

Cited by 9 publications

References 89 publications

Estimating weakening on hillslopes caused by strong earthquakes

Estimating weakening on hillslopes caused by strong earthquakes

Traditional and modified Newmark displacement methods after the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake (Eastern Tibetan Plateau)

Characteristics and susceptibility assessment of the earthquake-triggered landslides in moderate-minor earthquake prone areas at southern margin of Sichuan Basin, China

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