Predictive modeling for preventive Archaeology: overview and case study

Abstract

Abstract:The use of GIS and Spatial Analysis for predictive models is an important topic in preventive archaeology. Both of these tools play an important role in the Support Decision System (SDS) for archaeological research and for providing information useful to reduce archaeological risk. Over the years, a number of predictive models in the GIS environment have been developed and proposed. The existing models substantially differ from each other in methodological approaches and parameters used for performing the analysis. Until now, only few works consider spatial autocorrelation, which can provide more effective results. This paper provides a brief review of the existing predictive models, and then proposes a new methodological approach, applied to the neolithic sites in the Apulian Tavoliere (Southern Italy), that combines traditional techniques with methods that allow us to include spatial autocorrelation analysis to take into account the spatial relationships among the diverse sites.

Formal Modelling Approaches to Complexity Science in Roman Studies: A Manifesto

“…Potential for Roman Studies: Archaeological predictive models have been mainly used for heritage management and probability assessment of the existence of archaeological features, as well as to assess the risk for archaeological sites to be damaged (Verhagen 2007;Kamermans et al 2009;Verhagen et al 2010;Danese et al 2014;Perissiou 2014). They can be used to explore the interplay between environmental and Roman socio-cultural-economic factors (e.g.…”

GIS-Based and Statistical Approaches in Archaeological Predictive Modelling (NE Romania)

“…This has not been matched by an improvement in the statistical methods applied until recently, when a proliferation of different methods can be seen. Currently, APM represents a powerful tool for preventive archaeology [4], cultural heritage management [5,6] and improving national-scale archaeological inventories [7,8]. APMs have been used successfully in different geographical areas of the globe including Africa [9,10], Europe [1,[11][12][13], Asia [14,15] and America [16][17][18].…”

“…The most commonly tested era is the Neolithic, likely due to the pivotal nature of this period, and the fact that landforms were like modern features. Different areas (e.g., Italy [4], Greece [12], Scotland [27]) have distinct landscape features which may have been decisive for prehistoric people when choosing where to place a settlement. For example, in Italy [4], the favoured features were alluvial plains, terraces, caves (lithic industry), and low slope areas, while in Greece [12], the area around Thessaly represented an important connection between the islands of the Aegean Sea with the northern and southern parts of the country, being at the same time characterised by permanent inhabitation.…”

GIS-Based Visibility Network and Defensibility Model to Reconstruct Defensive System of the Han Dynasty in Central Xinjiang, China

“…The spatial distribution characteristics for building an archaeological prediction model could provide references, but most of them put more emphasis on the geographical or environmental aspects (slope, aspect, distance to water, elevation, etc.) in the location analysis under environmental determinism, and some spatial relations of archaeological sites are successfully discovered [13][14][15][16]. Other intrinsic factors, such as political, economic, or military considerations, also contribute to the location decision, but they are difficult to quantify [17][18][19][20][21].…”