Predictive Modeling of Vaccination Uptake in US Counties: A Machine Learning–Based Approach (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND While the COVID-19 pandemic has left an unprecedented impact globally, countries such as the United States of America have reported the most significant incidence of COVID-19 cases worldwide. Within the U.S., various sociodemographic factors have played an essential role in the creation of regional disparities. Regional disparities have resulted in the unequal spread of disease between U.S. counties, underscoring the need for efficient and accurate predictive modelling strategies to inform public health officials and reduce the burden on healthcare systems. Furthermore, despite the widespread accessibility of COVID-19 vaccines across the U.S., vaccination rates have become stagnant, necessitating predictive modelling to identify important factors impacting vaccination uptake. OBJECTIVE To determine the association between sociodemographic factors and vaccine uptake across counties in the U.S. METHODS Sociodemographic data on fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were sourced from several online databases, such as the U.S. Centre for Disease Control and U.S. Census Bureau COVID-19 Site. Machine learning analysis was performed using XGBoost and sociodemographic data. RESULTS Our model predicted COVID-19 vaccination uptake across U.S. countries with 59% accuracy. In addition, it identified location, education, ethnicity, and income as the most critical sociodemographic features in predicting vaccination uptake in U.S. counties. Lastly, the model produced a choropleth demonstrating areas of low and high vaccination rates, which can be used by healthcare authorities in future pandemics to visualize and prioritize areas of low vaccination and design targeted vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSIONS Our study reveals that sociodemographic characteristics are predictors of vaccine uptake rate across counties in the U.S. and if leveraged appropriately can assist policy makers and public health officials to understand vaccine uptake rates and craft policies to improve them.