Predictive modelling of climax oak trees in southern Spain: insights in a scenario of global change

Tirado, Javier López; Hidalgo, Pablo J.

doi:10.1007/s11258-016-0589-6

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…However, climate change may also affect oak distribution. The distribution of Holm oak has been predicted to expand (Vayreda et al, 2016), while those of Cork, Portuguese and Pyrenean oaks within Andalusia were predicted to diminish under the CNCM3 SRA1B climate change scenario (López-Tirado and Hidalgo, 2016). Moreover, the decreased might be given for an increasing aridity in the study area.…”

Section: Forecast Distributionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Duque-Lazo

Navarro-Cerrillo

Gils

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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Section: Forecast Distributionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Duque-Lazo

Navarro-Cerrillo

Gils

et al. 2018

Forest Ecology and Management

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“…Topographic variables were excluded because they remain invariable across time; hence they would alter forecasting scenarios (López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2016a, 2016b. Table 1 shows the complete list of the used explanatory variables.…”

Section: Source Of the Explanatory Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, Q. suber and Q. coccifera can be considered more thermophilous than other taxa studied here. Quercus ilex shows a wide ecological plasticity, in some cases bearing harsh xeric conditions (Petroselli et al 2013;López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2016b). In an aridity-humidity range, Q. ilex subsp.…”

Section: Ecology and Modelling Of Evergreen Oaksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, they correlate the acknowledged current distribution of a given species with climatic conditions in the main; in other words, cartography of suitability is resulted from a list of explanatory variables (Mateo et al 2011;Mellert et al 2011). Oaks have also been studied separately in some specific areas of the Mediterranean Basin Vessella et al 2015;Al-Qaddi et al 2016;López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2016b, Modica et al 2016; in some cases reaching the haplotype level (Simeone et al 2009;Schirone et al 2016;Simeone et al 2016;Vitelli et al 2017). Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are being improved each time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in evergreen oak suitability from assembled species distribution models: assessing climate change in south-western Europe

et al. 2018

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Questions: Will evergreen oaks be harmed or favoured by the expected global change? How could they interact? What is the trend along the twenty-first century regarding dominance or codominance among evergreen oaks? Location: Western Europe. Methods:We analysed four evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex subsp. ilex, Q. ilex subsp. ballota, Q. suber and Q. coccifera) by means of Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Three algorithms were used: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Logistic Regression (LR) and Environmental Distance (EnvDis). Taxa occurrences were taken especially from the National Forests Inventories (NFI), whereas environmental data was retrieved from WorldClim 1.4 project. Present period and four

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“…Species might undergo a marked risk of local extinction with a consequent fragmented distribution, especially in North Africa and Iberia (Benito Garzón et al, 2008;Klausmeyer and Shaw, 2009). If the habitable area is reduced for this species, or the potential for its permanence is predicted to be limited in a given location, other species may establish within the ecosystem (Pons and Pausas, 2006;Lopez Tirado and Hidalgo, 2016a). Tree species may undergo shifts in distribution within a short time owing to the effect of global change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on the spatial distribution and cork production of Quercus suber L., the risk of exclusion by the Aleppo pine expansion, and management practices to protect Q. suber habitat: A review

Mechergui

Jaouadi

Altamimi

et al. 2021

Not Bot Horti Agrobo

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Climate change represents an important challenge for forest management and the silviculture of stands and it is known that climate change will have complex effects on cork oak forest ecosystems. North Africa and the Mediterranean basin are especially vulnerable to climate change. Under the effect of climate change, cork oak will disappear from a large area in the future, and the rest will migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of Quercus suber L. and cork production in the Mediterranean area, and the risk of its exclusion by the Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) expansion. The literature review showed that up to 40% of current environmentally suitable areas for cork oak may be lost by 2070, mainly in northern Africa and the southern Iberian Peninsula. Temperature directly influences atmospheric evaporative demand and should affect cork productivity. Precipitation is the main factor that positively influences cork growth and several authors have confirmed the negative effect of drought on this growth. Currently, cork oak habitats are colonized in several places mainly by the Aleppo pine. Under climate change, Aleppo pine is projected to occupy higher altitude sites and several authors have predicted that current and future global warming will have a positive influence on Aleppo pine growth in wet sites. In the future and under climate change, there is a strong possibility that the Aleppo pine will colonize cork oak habitat. Finally, we proposed management practices to protect cork oak against climate change and Aleppo pine expansion.

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Predictive modelling of climax oak trees in southern Spain: insights in a scenario of global change

Cited by 25 publications

References 49 publications

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Trends in evergreen oak suitability from assembled species distribution models: assessing climate change in south-western Europe

Effect of climate change on the spatial distribution and cork production of Quercus suber L., the risk of exclusion by the Aleppo pine expansion, and management practices to protect Q. suber habitat: A review

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