Predictive Models of Accidents at Work in the Steel Sector as a Framework for Sustainable Safety

Abstract

Work safety can be a component of the broadly understood sustainable enterprise approach that goes beyond the idea of sustainable development. Sustainability in an unpredictable and turbulent environment has many constellations, many aspects and many fields of the enterprise’s activity and it complements the rationality of the business. The aim is to understand the sustainability of safety, because this is the term we have adopted for rationality in occupational safety management, in the context of the analysis of work accidents in the Polish steel industry, with particular emphasis on the methodology of forecast assessment in the studied area, proposed by us. The realized forecasts were used for the creation of a combined model which formed the basis for formulating conclusions from the analysis. The publication presents the modeling of the victims of work accidents in the steel sector in Poland. Based on the research of the forecasts obtained, a downward trend is recorded in the number of persons injured in accidents at work in the steel sector. In order to select the optimal model, it was proposed to set combined forecasts. In order to select the optimal model, it was proposed to set combined forecasts. The obtained values of ex-ante forecasts in the combined model also confirmed the forecasted trends determined within the adaptation models. The study is a proposal to extend the combined forecasting methods used to assess occupational safety. We consciously chose to include the methodology of combined forecasting of the number of people injured in accidents in the interpretation of sustainability, because we see the possibility of interpreting accident rates in sustainable business in the future. In the publication, we propose the framework of the sustainable safety model as an element of work safety management in an enterprise. We are trying to answer the question about the place of accident prediction in sustainable safety.

Post-Pandemic Steel Production Scenarios for Poland Based on Forecasts of Annual Steel Production Volume

“…Among the first publications were those presenting the use of autonomous technologies for product quality control during ongoing metallurgical processes [77,78,79,80]. The full automation of metallurgical processes was becoming a necessity, if only because of the high risk for employees, who had to work at very high temperatures and come into contact with other risks to their health and life [81,82]. Along with automation, IT technologies were entering the steel mills.…”

Application of Forecasting as an Element of Effective Management in the Field of Improving Occupational Health and Safety in the Steel Industry in Poland

“…In the second step, the accuracy of forecasts was assessed by means of ex post forecast errors used in the relevant literature on forecasting [21][22][23][24]26,[43][44][45][46][47][48][49]]:…”

“…empirical data; y t *, forecasts value; n, number of elements of the time series; m, number of initial time moments t. For the listed errors, the following limiting assumptions were made[21,23,42,49]: • adjusted average relative ex post error Θ-the error value should be in the range from <0-200%>; • mean error ψ, the error value should not exceed 10%; • mean absolute error MAE, the error value should satisfy the relationship that occurs between the measures-MAE ≤ RMSE; • root mean square error (RMSE) takes values less than or equal to the standard deviation of the S e model residuals. The standard deviation of the model residuals is determined from the relationship (5):…”

Key Directions in Changes from Steelworks 3.0 to Steelworks 4.0 with Analysis of Selected Technologies of Digitalizing the Steel Industry in Poland

“…Very high temperature, noise or dust. Analyzing the period from 2009 to 2018, the authors found that the number of people injured in accidents in the steel sector was 967 injured per year [47]. Apart from the causes not controlled by humans (explosion, fire, ignition of materials), there are technical reasons (defect of the material factor and poor state of security) and human (disregarding the hazard, insufficient concentration of attention, improper use of limbs in the danger zone, surprise by an unexpected event, improper working methods, non-compliance with health and safety regulations, failure to use safety footwear by the employee, performing activities without removing the risk, other (e.g.…”