Predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirth of the competing risks model for small for gestational age fetuses

Abstract

Objectives: First, to examine the predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths of the competing risks model for small for gestational age (SGA) fetuses based on a combination of maternal risk factors, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI); and second, to compare the performance of this model to that of stillbirth-specific model utilizing the same biomarkers and to the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (RCOG) guideline for the investigation and management of the SGA fetus. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Two UK maternity hospitals. Population: 131,514 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks’ gestation. Methods: The predictive performance for stillbirth achieved by three models was compared. Main outcome measures: Placental dysfunction related stillbirth. Results: At 10% false positive rate, the competing risks model predicted 59%, 66% and 71% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths, at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective figures of 62%, 70% and 73% for the stillbirth-specific model. At a screen positive rate of 21.8 %, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the new model predicted 71%, 76% and 79% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, and the respective figures for the RCOG guideline were 42%, 44% and 40%. Conclusion: The predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths by the competing risks model for SGA was similar to the stillbirth-specific model and superior to the RCOG guideline.