Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

Heij, Christiaan; Knapp, Sabine

doi:10.1080/03088839.2018.1440441

Cited by 46 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The PSC authorities aim to eliminate substandard ships; therefore, their inspectors are targeting poor maintenance practices, seafarer welfare, and accident prevention [16]. PSC inspections are also targeting human errors by examining crew qualifications, working conditions, and fatigue issues [17]. However, because of high ship traffic, accidents appear to occur repeatedly in certain regions and trading routes.…”

Section: Literature On Psc Strengths and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They should also be associated with ship management, academia, or seafarers' unions. However, extensive literature supports that a small group of experts may produce reliable results [17,83]. A basic condition for this approach is that the panel of experts can produce a decision matrix with CR value minor of 0.2 [84].…”

Section: Identify Indicators and Scorecards Of A Psc Moumentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Contribution of PSC Authorities to Ship Accident Prevention

Karahalios¹

2021

SN Oper. Res. Forum

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Historically, several maritime casualties have caused loss of lives or environmental disasters. World states are responsible to eliminate such disasters, along with the improvement and efficiency of goods transportation. To prevent similar cases, states have agreed to enforce international standards to oceangoing ships. For monitoring purposes, each state has empowered its Port State Control (PSC) to inspect foreign ships. Nevertheless, there are arguments that ships are over-inspected while accidents still occur. As a complementary action, some private organisations developed risk-based models, which used inspection results by PSC authorities to rate substandard ships. However, these companies provide the results of ships rating only to their clients. In this paper, it is argued that variations among PSC standards are not included in existing risk-based models. Therefore, in the proposed methodology, a Risk Accident Likelihood Tool is introduced, which is based on the reported ship deficiencies. The innovative idea is that every deficiency is weighted according to the rigorousness of the PSC recording the deficiency. This study shows that the challenges of inspection authorities are mainly caused by insufficient resources or poor organisational issues. Eventually, the proposed risk methodology provides a simplified scoring method. Ships with a high score are more likely to suffer an accident.

show abstract

Section: Literature On Psc Strengths and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Identify Indicators and Scorecards Of A Psc Moumentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of PSC Authorities to Ship Accident Prevention

Karahalios¹

2021

SN Oper. Res. Forum

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Step 1 of the protocol requires formulas that express probabilities of detention, VSS incidents, and incident types in terms of vessel-specific risk factors. The incident and inspection databases for 2010-2014 are used to estimate logit models for each of these probabilities according to the methodology described in Mueller and Morton (2002), Mueller (2007), Knapp (2006), Knapp and Franses (2007), and Heij and Knapp (2018). Knapp (2015) describes this method for the current database in more detail.…”

Section: Risk Formulasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shipping inspections, detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

Heij

Knapp

2019

Maritime Policy & Management

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting highrisk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30-50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.

show abstract

“…The literature on Port State Control covers various topics such as the evaluation of the effectiveness of Port State Control regimes [1,9] or the use of past deficiencies to predict future risk or to guide inspectors to find more deficiencies [11][12][13][14] but the standard assumption remains that detention equals incident risk. This manuscript challenges this assumption and presents a methodology that treats incident risk and detention as two separate risk dimensions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the presented approach allows for the combination of an automated data-driven part with qualitative aspects. Data-driven approaches have been proposed previously [1,[11][12][13][14] but exclude other components included here, such as accounting for two different risk dimensions and addition of inspection priority areas. The data-driven part here provides the risk profiles of individual vessels for eight vessel inspection priority risk areas and combines detention and incident (VSS) risk into one metric to enhance targeting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Strategies for the Maritime Industry to Target Vessels for Inspection and to Select Inspection Priority Areas

Knapp

Heij

2020

Safety

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Inspection authorities such as the Port State Control Memoranda of Understanding use different policies and targeting methods to select vessels for inspections and rely primarily on past inspection outcomes. One of the main goals of inspections is to improve the safety quality of vessels and to reduce the probability of future incidents. This study shows there is room for improvement in targeting vessels for inspections and in determining vessel-specific inspection priority areas (e.g., bridge management versus machinery related items). For the year 2018, sixty percent of vessels that experienced very serious or serious (VSS) incidents were not selected for inspection up to three months prior to the incident and forty percent of the vessels that were inspected still had incidents of which only four percent were detained. Furthermore, one can observe a very low correlation (−0.04) between the probabilities of detention and incidents (VSS) for the year 2018. The proposed approach treats detention and incident types as separate risk dimensions and evaluates seven targeting methods against random selection of vessels using empirical data for 2018. The analysis is based on three comprehensive data sets that cover the world fleet and shows potential gains (reduction of false negative events) of 14–27 percent compared to random selection. This can be further improved by adding eight inspection priority risk areas that help inspectors to focus inspections by providing insight in the individual risk profile of vessels. Policy makers can further customize the approach by classifying the risk of vessels into categories and by selecting inspection targets and benchmark samples. A small application example is provided to demonstrate feasibility of the proposed approach for policy makers and inspection authorities.

show abstract

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

Cited by 46 publications

References 46 publications

Contribution of PSC Authorities to Ship Accident Prevention

Contribution of PSC Authorities to Ship Accident Prevention

Shipping inspections, detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

Improved Strategies for the Maritime Industry to Target Vessels for Inspection and to Select Inspection Priority Areas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About