2013
DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-13-269
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Predictive risk modelling in the Spanish population: a cross-sectional study

Abstract: BackgroundAn increase in chronic conditions is currently the greatest threat to human health and to the sustainability of health systems. Risk adjustment systems may enable population stratification programmes to be developed and become instrumental in implementing new models of care.The objectives of this study are to evaluate the capability of ACG-PM, DCG-HCC and CRG-based models to predict healthcare costs and identify patients that will be high consumers and to analyse changes to predictive capacity when s… Show more

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Cited by 39 publications
(33 citation statements)
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References 29 publications
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“…These tools have been validated in several contexts [20,32,41], and have been even compared among themselves [13,14,31] in the articles reviewed.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…These tools have been validated in several contexts [20,32,41], and have been even compared among themselves [13,14,31] in the articles reviewed.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…After separating the articles by type of outcome, it has included 1 article which predicts length of stay [8], 3 articles which predict disability [9][10][11], 3 articles which predict healthcare costs [12][13][14] and 29 articles which predict hospital admissions and/or readmissions .…”
Section: Stratification Toolsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Higher risk predicted greater costs for the health care system. The process of obtaining the risk score is explained extensively elsewhere . However, the stratification was carried out in a specific moment and was based on data collected during a specific time range, while the evolution of the population was dynamic.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In particular, this patient‐centered strategy consisted in a risk stratification for case finding (RSCF) strategy launched in 2011 (available from the late 2012 and onward) by the Department of Health. Its aim was to prioritize complex frail and high‐risk patients on the basis of adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) . Patient prioritization implied the activation of a specific care pathway.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The risk modeling tool [we note that predictive modeling has been used for several health challenges including in the acute care setting, for population health, mental health, to model infectious disease risk, and for assessing the potential impact of climate change on health (1721)] could generate evidence for use in national surveillance systems and inform the committee’s guidance and technical assistance process. This process would specifically focus on proactively assessing existing and emerging health risks associated with extreme temperatures during the Hajj that are likely to be impacted by climate change.…”
Section: Policy Proposalmentioning
confidence: 99%