2022
DOI: 10.1038/s41573-022-00552-x
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Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it

Abstract: Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug research and development (R&D), point towards oases when they score therapeutic candidates in a way that correlates with clinical utility in humans. Otherwise, they probably lead in the wrong direction. This line of thought can be quantified by using decision theory, in which 'predictive validity' is the correlation coefficient between the o… Show more

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Cited by 46 publications
(33 citation statements)
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“…Antimicrobial resistance in animal and human pathogens represents a major global health crisis since the prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) clinical bacterial isolates are currently on the rise [ 1 , 2 ]. The World Health Organization’s priority list of resistant bacteria includes three Gram-negative species at the critical ranking, the highest level of concern [ 1 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Antimicrobial resistance in animal and human pathogens represents a major global health crisis since the prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) clinical bacterial isolates are currently on the rise [ 1 , 2 ]. The World Health Organization’s priority list of resistant bacteria includes three Gram-negative species at the critical ranking, the highest level of concern [ 1 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Drug discovery is expensive. Considering a representative target portfolio, high-throughput screening (HTS) is presently the most widely applicable technology for delivering chemical entry points for drug discovery campaigns ( Scannell et al, 2022 ), but despite its popularity, this high-cost method can result in low hit rates ( Zeng et al, 2020 ). The attrition rates of identified hits are further increased during the validation phase and optimization stage due to inherent deficits in the absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) properties ( Feinberg et al, 2020 ; Xiong et al, 2021 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The modeling of healthy and diseased function via networks is extremely popular today, leading to the near-universal assumption among both academia and the biotech industry that all control must be exerted at the hardware (molecular medicine) level. Despite some successes, it is widely acknowledged that despite the ever-increasing deluge of omics data and a mature set of computational tools for understanding dynamical systems, there is immense unmet medical need [12][13][14].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%