Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Abstract

Purpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine.Approach: Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96 matched pairs of print advertisements for adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles. Predictions from traditional methods-10,809 unaided judgments from novices and 2,764 judgments from people with some expertise in advertising, and 288 copy-testing predictions from 5,285 judgments-provided benchmarks.Findings: The higher adherence to principles' consensus score correctly predicted the more effective ad for 75% of the pairs. Copy testing was correct for 59% and expert judgment was correct for 55%. Guessing would provide 50% accurate predictions. Combining judgmental predictions led to substantial improvements in accuracy.Research limitations: Ads for high-involvement utilitarian products were tested on the assumption that persuasion principles would be more effective for such products. The measure of effectiveness that was available-day-after-recall-is a proxy for persuasion or behavioral measures.Practical implications: Pretesting ads by assessing adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles in a structured way helps in deciding which ads would be best to run. Such a procedure also identifies how to make an ad more effective.Originality: This is the first study in marketing, and in advertising specifically, to test the predictive validity of evidence-based principles. In addition, the study provides the first test of the predictive validity of the index method for a marketing problem. AbstractPurpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine.Approach: Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96 matched pairs of print advertisements for adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles. Predictions from traditional methods-10,809 unaided judgments from novices and 2,764 judgments from people with some expertise in advertising, and 288 copy-testing predictions from 5,285 judgments-provided benchmarks. Findings:The higher adherence to principles' consensus score correctly predicted the more effective ad for 75% of the pairs. Copy testing was correct for 59%, and expert judgment was correct for 55%. Guessing would provide 50% accurate predictions.Combining of judgmental predictions led to substantial improvements in accuracy.Research limitations: Ads for high-involvement utilitarian products were tested on the assumption that persuasion principles would be more effective for such products. The measure of effectiveness that was available-day-after-recall-is a proxy for persuasion or behavioral measures. Practical implica...

Influenciando atitudes e comportamentos com anúncios publicitários: articulando teoria e prática

“…He divided his 195 principles into strategies, general tactics, and tactics specific to certain media. In subsequent studies, Armstrong et al (2016) found evidences of validity for the instrument, in addition to testing its predictive validity and demonstrating the potential of its use for advertising testing. Although the instrument has shown promise, more rigorous tests, using data from a single source, still need to be conducted (SHARP; HARTNETT, 2016).…”

Extending validity testing of the Persuasion Principles Index

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Purpose -This study aims to independently test the predictive validity of the Persuasion Principles Index (PPI) for video advertisements for low-involvement products with a measure of in-market sales effectiveness. This study follows the inaugural test conducted by Armstrong et al (2016) for print advertisements for highinvolvement utilitarian products with a measure of advertising recall.Design/methodology/approach -The method was in line with that developed by Armstrong et al(2016) for rating advertisements and assessing the reliability of ratings. Consensus PPI scores were calculated for a data set of 242 matched pairs of television advertisements.

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“…Findings indicate that better adherence to the persuasion principles produces only a weak, positive effect for predicting the performance of television advertisements for low-involvement products. A research agenda that flows from the results is discussed.Practical implications -The authors suggest that the PPI in its present form is best used to predict advertising performance under conditions as per the inaugural validation test (Armstrong et al, 2016).Originality/value -Advertisers will require compelling evidence of the PPI's predictive accuracy to adopt the tool for pre-testing advertising. This study is the first independent test of the predictive validity of the PPI and its generalisability across advertising conditions.…”

“…Purpose -This study aims to independently test the predictive validity of the Persuasion Principles Index (PPI) for video advertisements for low-involvement products with a measure of in-market sales effectiveness. This study follows the inaugural test conducted by Armstrong et al (2016) for print advertisements for highinvolvement utilitarian products with a measure of advertising recall.…”

“…Practical implications -The authors suggest that the PPI in its present form is best used to predict advertising performance under conditions as per the inaugural validation test (Armstrong et al, 2016).…”