Predictive Validity of the DYRA and SAFVR: New Zealand Police’s Family Violence Risk Assessment Instruments

Abstract

Rapid access to accurate risk assessment information is essential for effective police responses to family violence (FV) calls for service. This study describes the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DYRA) for family violence and Static Assessment of Family Violence Recidivism (SAFVR), currently in use by the New Zealand Police. We used 1,817 police reports of FV episodes to predict recurrence (i.e., repeat call for police service) over three follow-up periods. Regardless of follow-up, the DYRA and SAFVR each displayed poor ability to discriminate between episodes with and without a recurrence. Both instruments substantially over-predicted recurrence and performed relatively consistently across subsamples (e.g., intimate partners vs. other family relationship; aggressor gender, ethnicity, age). The especially poor performance of the DYRA suggests further research on dynamic risk factors and their contribution to police responses for FV is needed to make these instruments more useful for agencies working with families.

Unpacking Multiagency Structured Professional Judgment Risk Assessments for Family Violence

“…This study used archival data sourced from the ISR's Family Safety System database for a larger study on FV in New Zealand (Jolliffe Simpson et al, 2021). The ISR is a FV multiagency crisis response service including representatives from New Zealand Police, Ara Poutama Aotearoa (Department of Corrections), District Health Boards, Oranga Tamariki (child protection services), Accident Compensation Corporation, and nongovernmental organizations that provide services to families and whānau experiencing FV (Mossman et al, 2017).…”

The Validity of the ODARA in Australian Intimate Partner Violence Cases Without Prior Assault/Credible Threat or Cohabitation

“…To date there has been no investigation of whether the presence or absence of these relationship-based inclusion criteria affects the performance of the ODARA. If the ODARA was shown to be valid in samples that did not meet these criteria, it may be possible to use the tool in a wider range of IPA cases presenting to police, making it more feasible for police to adopt the ODARA as a single risk assessment instrument for IPA (Jolliffe Simpson et al, 2021). Existing research suggests that these kinds of cases may differ from the development sample in important ways.…”

“…Legislative definitions now encompass abuse in both married and dating couples and same and opposite gender partnerships, and behaviors that go well beyond physical assault or credible threat (McEwan et al, 2019; Medina Ariza et al, 2016). In jurisdictions where police are required to respond to a wider range of IPA, there is pressure for them to assess risk of broader abuse outcomes in a variety of intimate relationships (Ballucci et al, 2020; Barlow et al, 2020; Jolliffe Simpson et al, 2021; Lauria et al, 2017; McEwan et al, 2019; Medina Ariza et al, 2016).…”

“…Given the variety of IPA presenting to police and policy shifts toward the use of risk assessment to prioritize risk management responses (Medina Ariza et al, 2016), there are three options for police organizations wishing to pursue evidence-based risk assessment across the full range of reported IPA. The organization could develop and validate a completely new instrument (e.g., Jolliffe Simpson et al, 2021; McEwan et al, 2019; Williams, 2012); they could develop, test, and adopt multiple different risk assessment instruments for different kinds of IPA (and possibly other kinds of family violence that does not involve intimate partners); or existing instruments already in use (like the ODARA) can be tested to determine whether they are valid in a wider range of cases than was originally intended. The first two options have a significant cost.…”

“…Developing a new risk assessment instrument is complex and time-consuming as it must also undergo validation trials that may ultimately result in the tool being discarded if it is ineffective. Using multiple different risk assessment instruments would involve developing new instruments for forms of abuse not assessed by existing tools, and an ongoing additional training, policy and administrative burden (Jolliffe Simpson et al, 2021). Conversely, if a tool already in widespread use, such as the ODARA, could be shown to provide valid risk assessment beyond its original scope, it could be a practical, efficient, and cost-effective solution for police agencies trying to incorporate evidence-based risk assessment into their response to all forms of IPA (McEwan et al, 2019; Medina Ariza et al, 2016; Spivak et al, 2020).…”