Predictors and geographic analysis of road traffic accidents in Leon, Nicaragua

Abstract

Objective: To identify environmental factors present in areas with high density of road traffic accidents (RTA) in Leon, Nicaragua. Methods: The analysis included all accidents recorded by the Police Department in León City, from January to June 2017. All crashes were georeferenced, and data were collected from the environment elements within a perimeter of 20 meters from the site in which accidents occurred with a pre-tested data collection instrument. We specified a Poisson regression model to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine environmental factors associated with the event incidence. For the identification areas with high, medium, and low occurrences of crashes, kernel density around points in which RTA occurred were estimated. Results: Out of 667 recorded crashes, 90% involved men aged 15-40, and motorcycle accidents represented 60% of injuries or deaths. Environmental factors that were positively associated with RTA included good road conditions (adjusted IRR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.13 - 1.63) and the existence of bicycle lanes (adjusted IRR = 1.64, 95%CI 1.29 - 2.10). Environmental characteristics associated with higher speeds and heavier accidents can increase their incidence. Conclusion: We found that high-foot-traffic commercial or touristic centers are three areas with high density of crashes. Local authorities can use these findings to promote road safety measures in high-incidence areas in León City.

Geographic areas with the highest concentration of traffic accidents in San Salvador, El Salvador: a spatial analysis of the period 2014-2018

“…The lack of lighting observed in C10 may be a contributing factor to the increased risk of a traffic accident due to poor visibility on the roads 26 , a problem that may be aggravated by the absence of traffic signs in C1, C7, and C10. Poor visibility and road signs are factors that contribute to the occurrence of traffic accidents 28 , 29 . Besides, the large number of billboards in the main grids with the highest number of traffic accidents must also be considered.…”

“…Studies in which GIS have been used to analyze traffic accidents are limited in Central America; however, they have contributed to the understanding of the particular spatial patterns identified in some urban areas of the region. These studies are based on the specific identification of traffic accidents 27 , 29 and the application of a multivariate model to determine the frequency of traffic accidents based on factors that contribute to this problem 31 . In El Salvador, the application of GIS has been useful to highlight issues of public health interest 32 , 33 .…”

“…La falta de iluminación observada en la C10 puede ser un factor que contribuya al incremento del riesgo de sufrir un accidente de tránsito por la poca visibilidad en las carreteras 26 , un problema que puede agravarse con la ausencia de señales de tránsito observada en las C1, C7 y C10. La poca visibilidad y la señalización en las carreteras son factores que contribuyen a la ocurrencia de accidentes de tránsito 28 , 29 . A esto también debe agregarse la gran cantidad de vallas publicitarias observadas en las principales cuadrículas con mayor cantidad de accidentes de tránsito.…”

“…En Centroamérica, los estudios en los que se ha aplicado los SIG para analizar los accidentes de tránsito son limitados, sin embargo, han contribuido en la comprensión de los patrones espaciales particulares identificados en algunas zonas urbanas de la región. Estos estudios se basan en la identificación puntual de accidentes de tránsito 27 , 29 y la aplicación de un modelo multivariado para determinar la frecuencia de accidentes de tránsito a partir de factores que contribuyen a esta problemática 31 . En El Salvador, la aplicación de los SIG ha sido útil para evidenciar temas de interés de salud pública 32 , 33 .…”