Predictors of all-cause 30-days mortality in acute decompensated heart failure patients in the emergency department setting

Abstract

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Grants from Region Östergötland County Medical Research Council of South East Sweden. Introduction The use of NT-proBNP is well established in the management of heart failure (HF), and as predictor of mortality in HF patients. However, on short-term mortality in acute decompensated heart failure the evidence is scarce. Purpose We aimed to evaluate NT-proBNP as an independent predictor of 30-day all-cause mortality in acute decompensated heart failure patients, seeking emergency medical care. Methods This was an observational study including all visits to Vrinnevisjukhuset hospital emergency department during two years, where the patient was above 18 years of age, and the main diagnosis was set to HF. Appropriate data for each visit were collected from the patients’ medical records retrospectively. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for 30-day mortality. Results From the 459 emergency department visits included in the study 59 patients (12,9%) reached the primary end point of all-cause mortality in 30 days. Age, body mass index (BMI), mean arterial pressure (MAP), sodium, potassium, NT-proBNP, and the presence of atrial fibrillation or flutter were variables achieving P<0.1 on univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis and were subsequently introduced to the multivariate model. Age (HR: 1,05; p=0,008), sodium (HR: 0,925; p=0,012), potassium (HR: 1,95; p=0,002) and MAP (HR: 0,978; p=0,009) was found to be the only independent predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality. Conclusions Our study indicates that for short-term prediction of mortality, other markers than NT-proBNP are of significance. Measurement of serum potassium might be a better tool for clinicians in identifying patients at highest risk of short-term mortality.