Predictors of Choledocholithiasis in Cholecystectomy Patients and Their Cutoff Values and Prediction Model in Korea in Comparison with the 2019 ASGE Guidelines

Abstract

Background/Aims: In 2019, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) established clinical predictors for choledocholithiasis. Our study was designed to evaluate these predictors within the Korean clinical context, establish cutoff values, and develop a predictive model. Methods:This retrospective study analyzed patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy. The relationships between choledocholithiasis and predictors including age, blood tests, and imaging findings were assessed through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. We established Korean cutoff values for these predictors and developed a scoring system for choledocholithiasis using a multivariate logistic regression. The performance of this scoring system was then compared with that of the 2019 ASGE guidelines through a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results:We established Korean cutoff values for age (>70 years), alanine aminotransferase (>26.5 U/L), aspartate aminotransferase (>28.5 U/L), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT; >82.5 U/L), alkaline phosphatase (ALP; >77.5 U/L), and total bilirubin (>0.95 mg/dL). In the multivariate analysis, only age >70 years, GGT >77.5 U/L, ALP >77.5 U/L, and common bile duct dilatation remained significant. We then developed a new Korean risk stratification model from the multivariate analysis, with an area under the curve of 0.777 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 0.81). Our model was stratified into the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups with the scores being <1.0, 1.0-5.5, and >5.5, respectively.Conclusions: Predictors of choledocholithiasis in cholecystectomy patients and their cutoff values in Korean should be adjusted and further studies are needed to develop appropriate guidelines.