Predictors of mortality among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients after decentralization of services in Tanzania from 2017 to 2019: retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) presents persistent global health challenges, characterized by low treatment success rates among patients enrolled for treatment. The World Health Organization recommends decentralization to improve outcomes. This study aims to assess predictors of mortality among MDR-TB patients after decentralization of services in Tanzania. This was a retrospective cohort study involving all MDR-TB patients enrolled in treatment in all 31 regions in Tanzania from 2017 to 2019. The overall mortality rate among MDR-TB patients was calculated using the incidence rate. Additionally, independent factors of MDR-TB mortality were determined using multivariable cox proportional hazards models. Results The study followed 985 patients for a total of 12,929 months. During this time, it found that approximately 12 out of every 1000 patients died each month. Specifically, the death rates were about 18 out of 1000 patients at 6 months, 8 out of 1000 at 12 months, and 7 out of 1000 at 24 months. Patients who had both MDR-TB and HIV, as well as those who were malnourished, had a lower chance of surviving at 6, 12, and 24 months. Malnourished patients had almost three times the risk of dying [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.96, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 2.10–4.19], while those with HIV had nearly double the risk [aHR 1.91, with a 95% CI of 1.37–2.65]. Conclusion In summary, our study on MDR-TB patient outcomes in Tanzania between 2017 and 2019 reveals a pattern of high mortality rates within the first 6 months of treatment. Furthermore, malnutrition and HIV co-infection were found to be significant predictors of mortality. To decrease mortality, it is crucial to closely monitor patients during the initial 6 months of treatment, especially those who are malnourished or co-infected with HIV, and ensure they receive appropriate and timely care. Additionally, further investigation is needed to find out what may be contributing to possible rise in mortality rate.