Background
Spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) remains a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality amongst non-anomalous neonates in the United States. SPTB tends to recur at similar gestational ages. Intramuscular 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17OHP-C) reduces the risk of recurrent SPTB. Unfortunately, one-third of high-risk women will have a recurrent SPTB despite 17OHP-C therapy; the reasons for this variability in response are unknown.
Objective
We hypothesized that clinical factors among women treated with 17OHP-C who suffer recurrent SPTB at a similar gestational age differ from women who deliver later, that these associations could be used to generate a clinical scoring system to predict 17OHP-C response.
Study Design
Secondary analysis of a prospective, multi-center, randomized controlled trial enrolling women with ≥1 prior singleton SPTB <37 weeks gestation. Participants received daily omega-3 supplementation or placebo for recurrent PTB prevention; all were provided 17OHP-C. Women were classified as a 17OHP-C responder or non-responder by calculating the difference in delivery gestational age between the 17OHP-C treated pregnancy and her earliest prior SPTB. Responders were women with pregnancy extending ≥3 weeks later compared to the delivery gestational age of their earliest prior PTB; non-responders delivered earlier or within 3 weeks of the gestational age of their earliest prior PTB. A risk score for non-response to 17OHP-C was generated from regression models using clinical predictors, and was validated in an independent population. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression.
Results
754 women met inclusion criteria; 159 (21%) were non-responders. Responders delivered later on average (37.7 +/− 2.5 weeks) than non-responders (31.5 +/− 5.3 weeks), p<0.001. Among responders, 27% had a recurrent SPTB (vs. 100% of non-responders). Demographic characteristics were similar between responders and non-responders. In a multivariable logistic regression model, independent risk factors for non-response to 17OHP-C were each additional week of gestation of the earliest prior PTB (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.17–1.30, p<0.001), placental abruption or significant vaginal bleeding (OR 5.60, 95% CI 2.46–12.71, p<0.001), gonorrhea and/or chlamydia in the current pregnancy (OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.36–9.48, p=0.010), carriage of a male fetus (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.02–2.24, p=0.040), and a penultimate PTB (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.03–4.25, p=0.041). These clinical factors were used to generate a risk score for non-response to 17OHP-C as follows: Black +1, male fetus +1, penultimate PTB +2, gonorrhea/chlamydia +4, placental abruption +5, earliest prior PTB was 32–36 weeks +5. A total risk score >6 was 78% sensitive and 60% specific for predicting non-response to 17OHP-C (AUC=0.69). This scoring system was validated in an independent population of 287 women; in the validation set, a total risk score >6 performed similarly with a 65% sensitivity, 67% specificity and AUC of 0.66.
Conclusions
Several clinical ch...