Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single Moving Average

Irawan, Feri; Sumijan, S; Yuhandri, Y

doi:10.37034/jidt.v3i4.162

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…Thus, it highlights that the method is reasonable and still acceptable. Various MAPE scores are possible because the 3 period SMA method has several weaknesses, including the need for sufficient historical data, the same weight of the data in each year, and unavailability of random data, which did not result in a good forecast (Irawan et al, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Drug Demand Using the Single Moving Average 3 Periode at Ugm Academic Hospital

Puspitasari

Satibi

Yuniarti

et al. 2022

JFSP

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Drug management at the Academic Hospital of Gadjah Mada University found that the damaged and expired drugs amounted to 4.71% and the dead stock was 7.89%. One of the influential factors to contribute to the considerable amount of damaged and expired drugs and dead stock is inaccurate planning. Forecasting is one aspect of planning, which helps predict the upcoming event as a way to make planning more effective and efficient. One of the forecasting methods is the 3-period Single Moving Average (SMA). This study aims to forecast drug demand in January 2021 at the Academic Hospital of Gadjah Mada and to see the size of the error using the 3-period SMA method. This is an observational study with the retrsospective descriptive analysis. The research population is all drugs used at the Academic Hospital of Gadjah Mada in January 2018-December 2020. The samples are the top 5 most used drugs based on A category resulted from the ABC analysis of consumption in 2020 with certain criteria using purposive sampling technique. The drug demand was forecasted using Eviews 12 software and its error size, particularly the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated using Microsoft Excel. The results showed that the forecast of drug demand in January 2021 was Tutofusin Ops 500ml 496pcs, Hemapo 2000 IU/ml 290pcs, Hemapo 3000 IU/ml 219pcs, Abilify Discmelt 10mg 717pcs, and Otsu-NS Piggyback 3736pcs. The calculated MAPE value was 8-32%, which means that the 3 period SMA forecasting is acceptable and reasonable for further application at the Academic Hospital of Gadjah Mada

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study referred to data that did not contain any element of trend or seasonal factors. The advantages of this method are ease of calculation and simplicity (Irawan et al, 2021). Currently, a number of softwares can be directly used for ease of forecasting, one of which is Eviews 12.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Drug Demand Using the Single Moving Average 3 Periode at Ugm Academic Hospital

Puspitasari

Satibi

Yuniarti

et al. 2022

JFSP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Berikut merupakan hasil penelitian menggunakan peramalan dengan metode Single Moving Average yang berkaitan dengan penelitian ini adalah antara lain penelitian tenteng peramalan penjualan paving block [7], prediksi tingkat produksi buah kelapa sawit [8] barang minimarket [9], peramalan alat kesehatan [10], peramalan persediaan bahan pangan [11], prediksi stok produsen [12], prediksi penjualan obat [13], prediksi persediaan kedelai [14], peramalan penjualan sembako [15] dan prediksi penjualan barang baby shop [16]. Pada hasil penelitian tersebut, peramalan dengan metode Single Moving Average telah banyak diterapkan salah satunya di dalam persediaan bahan baku.…”

Section: Tinjauan Literaturunclassified

Prediction of Bread Raw Material Stock At Al-Fattah Bakery and Cake Aek Teluk Kiri using SMA method

Handayani,

Syahputra

2024

SISTEMASI

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AL- Fattah Bakery and Cake is a company engaged in the production and sale of pastries. In managing raw material inventory, you must ensure sufficient inventory for sales, minimizing the time and costs required. Inventory control is an effort carried out by a company to optimize sales and seek as little risk as possible. The problem faced by AL- Fattah Bakery and Cake for each branch in Asahan Regency is the difficulty in determining the amount of raw material inventory that must be produced in the following month in order to continue to meet customer demand and not cause accumulation over a long period of time and maintain the stability of raw material stock. . Because if there is a buildup of stock, it could result in the product expiring and failing to be distributed to customers. This is caused by customer demand which changes every month following existing trends. The aim of this research is to predict raw material supplies using the SMA (Single Moving Average) method at AL- Fattah Bakery and Cake for each branch in Asahan Regency. Based on the results of the research that has been carried out, the Single Moving Average (SMA) method can help AL- Fattah Bakery and Cake Aek Teluk Kiri with the Single Moving Average Method in predicting the supply of bread raw materials for the following month.

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“…Bagian tersebut dapat menghasilkan produksi minyak yang bersumber dari kernel kalapa sawit [3], [4]. Perusahaan selalu meningkatkan hasil produksi kelapa sawit dengan berbagai cara untuk dapat dijadikan minyak, makanan, kecantikan, bahan bakar energi dan industri lainnya [5] [6].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Implementasi Triple Exponential Smoothing dan Double Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Produksi Kernel Kelapa Sawit

Sandika,

Gusti,

Handayani

et al. 2023

josh

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The production of palm kernel is a significant product for the company and plays a crucial role. Nevertheless, the stability of kernel production is not always consistent, and the quality of the kernel can be detrimental to the company. As consumer demands change over time, companies must anticipate every fluctuation in palm kernel production. Hence it is vital to figure the long run with a settlement prepare utilizing information mining utilizing information within the past. The Triple Exponential Smoothing and Double Moving Average methods, which are data mining methods for future forecasting, were used in this study. The aim of this research is to predict the yield of future oil palm kernel production using the Triple Exponential Smoothing and Double Moving Average methods and to determine the level of forecasting errors using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The data for the last ten years, from January 2013 to December 2022, were used in this study. After testing the Triple Exponential Smoothing method with parameters α=0.2,β=0.γ=0.2, the error rate using MAPE was 9.48%, and the Double Moving Average method had an error rate of 11.2%. The MAPE results of the Triple Exponential Smoothing method are considered very good, while the MAPE results of the Double Moving Average method are categorized as good based on the range of MAPE values. This research is expected to provide information to related companies as a supporting reference in anticipating palm oil kernel production. The conclusion of the research is that the Triple Exponential Smoothing method with the test parameters is the best method for forecasting.

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Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single Moving Average

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Forecasting Drug Demand Using the Single Moving Average 3 Periode at Ugm Academic Hospital

Forecasting Drug Demand Using the Single Moving Average 3 Periode at Ugm Academic Hospital

Prediction of Bread Raw Material Stock At Al-Fattah Bakery and Cake Aek Teluk Kiri using SMA method

Implementasi Triple Exponential Smoothing dan Double Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Produksi Kernel Kelapa Sawit

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