Preface to the Special Issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21

Mu, Mu; Luo, Dehai; Zheng, Fei

doi:10.1007/s00376-021-1004-3

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…However, this work was a case study; thus, whether the warm Arctic-cold Siberia or the Arctic-tropical ocean temperature difference will in uence the mid-latitude cold event is an ongoing discussion because of the limited event samples. Also, with a signi cant global warming background, seasonal prediction and physical processes related to the onset and evolution of extreme cold events are still a work in progress (Mu et al, 2022).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Realistic ocean initial condition for stimulating the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/2021 winter

Zheng

Ren

Lin³

et al. 2022

Clim Dyn

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In the rst half of winter 2020/21, several unprecedented cold events occurred in most parts of China and caused record-breaking low temperatures in many cities. However, seasonal predictions related to the onset and evolution of extreme cold events are still challenging. In this study, we rst evaluated the shortterm climate prediction skills in winter of the CAS-ESM-c global coupled model and revealed the key dynamic processes of the onset and development of 2020/21 extreme cold events based on ensemble forecasts starting on October 1, 2020. Under an indispensable background provided by the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Paci c (La Niña), the model captured the abnormal meridional atmospheric pattern well, including the intensi cation of the Ural Blocking High and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, forecasted the negative geopotential height anomalies over the eastern Asia region, and nally, successfully predicted the outbreak of cold waves in December 2020 two months in advance. The dominant differences in the initial ocean elds between the best and the worst forecast members were further compared to isolate the triggering factor for predicting cold events by CAS-ESM-c. The initial warm sea surface temperature over the Barents Sea can gradually form a meridional pattern between the warm Arctic and the cold Asian continent, which could lead to a reduction in the large-scale meridional temperature gradient at mid-high latitudes and weaken the atmospheric baroclinicity; these are conditions that are more conducive to the southward outbreak of cold waves, highlighting that realistic Arctic ocean conditions in autumn can be reasonably assimilated into coupled models to stimulate the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/21 winter.worst member at the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in October and November 2020.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Realistic ocean initial condition for stimulating the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/2021 winter

Zheng

Ren

Lin³

et al. 2022

Clim Dyn

Self Cite

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“…Lower Arctic temperature may strengthen the polar vortex, maintain the zonal movement of the westerly wind, and reduce the extreme cold weather in Eurasia (Zheng et al 2022b). The slight cold in northern North America may be linked to the positive phase of the NAO, the North Pacific mode, and the La Niña in 2020 (Peng et al 2018, Mu et al 2022, Zhang et al 2022. In the meantime, the maintenance of severe marine heatwaves made a positive contribution from the North Pacific in 2020, which is modulated by the reduction in the heat flux of evaporative cooling due to the easterly wind anomaly and the decreased vertical entrainment (Chen et al 2021).…”

Section: Differences In Timescales Of Causes Of High Gmst In 2016 And...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Key regions in the modulation of seasonal GMST variability by analyzing the two hottest years: 2016 vs. 2020

Zheng

Luo

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Following the end of the decadal-warming-hiatus in 2016, the global mean surface temperature (GMST) abruptly showed a 3-yr warming slowdown and peaked again in 2020, overturning the conventional concept that highest GMST occurs with strong El Niño. The high GMST in 2016 was controlled by secular trend (SCT) and annual variability (ANV). However, the dominator of the sharp GMST rise in 2020 was SCT alone because the ANVs in different seasons canceled each other out in 2020, contributing little to the annual mean GMST. By analyzing the two hottest years, 2016 and 2020, we identified that seasonally varying ANVs are mainly located in Eurasia, North America, the Arctic Ocean, and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Dominance by surface temperatures over the four crucial regions on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) GMST variations was also observed in 73% of the years during 1982-2021, indicating a potential opportunity to improve the S2S GMST forecast.

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Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Niña in 2022/23?

Zheng

Wang

et al. 2022

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Preface to the Special Issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21

Cited by 9 publications

References 29 publications

Realistic ocean initial condition for stimulating the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/2021 winter

Realistic ocean initial condition for stimulating the successful prediction of extreme cold events in the 2020/2021 winter

Key regions in the modulation of seasonal GMST variability by analyzing the two hottest years: 2016 vs. 2020

Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Niña in 2022/23?

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