Prefactual Thoughts: Mental Simulations about What Might Happen

Abstract

Thought about the future can take many forms, from goal planning to intentions and from fantasies to magical thinking. The term prefactual has guided some past research, yet its potential impact has been hampered by inconsistency in its definition. Here we define prefactual thought as a conditional (if-then) proposition about an action-outcome linkage that may (or may not) take place in the future, such as “If I take action X, it will lead to outcome Y.” A prefactual embraces a causal belief that an action (if taken) will result in the outcome with a high degree of certainty. A form of mental simulation, prefactuals often derive from counterfactuals (which focus on the past) and feed into intentions (which center on the future). This article provides an overview of extant findings, draws connections to goal pursuit and affect regulation, and clarifies the value of the prefactual construct for conceptualizations of prospection.

Preparing for what might happen: An episodic specificity induction impacts the generation of alternative future events

“…For example, changing the primary event outcome and the perceived consequences may have a larger influence on the perceived event plausibility and valence than mentally reframing emotional aspects of the original event, or vice versa. Furthermore, certain types of changes may be perceived as more controllable, hence increasing the likelihood of linking mere thought to the actual implementation of action (Epstude et al, 2016). Thus, separately manipulating different types of event changes may be another interesting avenue of future research.…”

“…There does exist a smaller body of research on prefactual thinking, a type of conditional future thought concerning alternative future outcomes that may occur with some degree of certainty (Byrne & Egan, 2004; Petrocelli, Seta, & Seta, 2012; Epstude, Scholl, & Roese, 2016). Prefactuals often take the form of, “If I take action X, then it may lead to outcome Y”; for example, “If I study for 5 hours, then I may get a better grade on my exam, or “If I only study for 1 hour, then I may do poorly” (for related work on implementation intentions, see Gollwitzer, 1999; Gollwitzer & Sheeran, 2006).…”

Improving Physical Task Performance with Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking

“…For example, episodic future simulation and affective forecasting in decision making [10–13], and implementation intentions and performance task improvement [14, 15]. While these processes all involve the hypothetical construction of an imagined future event, Epstude, Scholl and Roese [16] argue that prefactual thinking is a distinct mode of prospection. Specifically, rather than purely simulating or predicting the future, a key distinction is that prefactuals provide a conditional (if-then) proposition of a future action-outcome link.…”

Looking Behind and Looking Ahead: Personality Differences in Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking

“…CFT often takes the form of "if only …" thoughts about what might have been, for instance, a student might imagine "if only I had studied harder, I could have passed my exams". Similarly, people reflect on the future, known as prefactual thinking (PFT), imagining different possible outcomes, for instance "if I work hard for my exam next month, I will pass" where there is a causal link between an antecedent and consequent (Epstude, Scholl & Roese, 2016). These types of thought can impact on our wellbeing and ongoing behaviour.…”

“…Simulating future possibilities plays a key role in planning and goal-setting (Epstude et al, 2016) by allowing individuals to consider the consequences of different actions and events.…”