Preliminary Analysis of Relationships between COVID19 and Climate, Morphology, and Urbanization in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the most severe global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time, and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease epidemics - such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to individuate relationships between several climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, evaporation, and wind direction and intensity), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths parameter was not considered, because it is not reliable, due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy) from 1 March, 2020 to 20 April, 2020. This region exhibited the largest rate of official deaths in the world, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on 30 June 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. Both the Mann–Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least during spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania (Southern Italy), the most weakly affected by the pandemic, were approximately 1.5 °C lower than those in Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virulence from COVID-19 is not evident, at least in Italy.

Effects of environmental parameters and their interactions on the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in North Italy under different social restrictions. A new approach based on multivariate analysis

“…These investigations have examined the effect of atmospheric parameters on the COVID-19 diffusion in the most impacted zone (especially Lombardia, and its main city: Milano), and during the most dramatic period, up to March 2020, i.e. the first month ( Pivato et al, 2021 ; Pirouz et al, 2020 ; Collivignarelli et al, 2021 ; Haghshenas et al, 2020 ; Bontempi, 2020 ; Passerini et al, 2020 ; Ye et al, 2021 ; Sfîcă et al, 2020 ; Khursheed et al, 2021 ; Coker et al, 2020 ; Bianconi et al, 2020 ; Accarino et al, 2021 ; Perone, 2021 ; Filippini et al, 2021 ; Kotsiou et al, 2021 ), or up to April 2020 ( Coccia, 2020 ; Delnevo et al, 2020 ; Fazzini et al, 2020 ; Filippini et al, 2020 ; Fattorini and Regoli, 2020 ; Zoran et al, 2020 ; De Angelis et al, 2021 ; Benedetti et al, 2020 ; Agnoletti et al, 2020 ). Only a few works have considered a wider time span, up to the end of spring ( Ho et al, 2021 ; Pansini and Fornacca, 2021 ; Lolli et al, 2020 ; Cascetta et al, 2021 ).…”

The therapeutic efficacy of Xuanfei Baidu Formula combined with conventional drug in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019

“…With the advent of winter, many experts predict that the epidemic caused by COVID-19 will once again erupt globally. [ 12 , 13 ] Traditional Chinese medicine has a history of more than 2000 years in the prevention and treatment of epidemics and plagues, [ 14 ] In light of its experience treating SARS and H1N1 influenza, in the fight against COVID-19, China achieved effect. Network pharmacology and molecular docking studies of XBF show that it has effect in the treatment of COVID-19 patients, by regulating key targets such as IL6, MAPK3, MAPK1, IL1β, CCL2, EGFR.…”

Maxingshigan decoction for treating COVID-19

“…With the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere, many experts predict that the epidemic caused by COVID-19 will once again erupt globally. [ 14 – 16 ] Chinese herbal medicine has unique advantages in the treatment of acute infectious diseases, such as malaria and SARS. [ 17 ] During the COVID-19 epidemic, MXSG Decoction played a significant role in improving lung function.…”