Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020

Olson, Donald R.; Huynh, Mary; Fine, Anne; Baumgartner, Jennifer; Castro, Alejandro; Chan, Hiu Tai; Daskalakis, Demetre; Devinney, Katelynn; Guerra, Kevin; Harper, Scott; Kennedy, Joseph; Konty, Kevin; Li, Wenhui; McGibbon, Emily; Shaff, Jaimie; Thompson, Corinne N.; Vora, Neil M.; Wye, Gretchen Van

doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6919e5

Cited by 161 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Another limitation is that analysis solely of deaths classified as due to COVID-19 do not capture the full excess burden of mortality due to the pandemic. At issue is not only potential misclassification of deaths but also deaths not directly due to SARS-COV-2 infection but nevertheless due to the pandemic, e.g., deaths due to people not seeking care for chest pains because of fear of viral exposure at hospitals [28][29][30]. Wellknown problems affecting counts of NHAIAN deaths and the NHAIAN population likely lead to conservative estimates of risk [18][19][20][21], but misclassification of race/ethnicity on death certificates is very low for the remaining racial/ethnic groups [18].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study

2020

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Background In the United States, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, and non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (NHAIAN) populations experience excess COVID-19 mortality, compared to the non-Hispanic White (NHW) population, but racial/ethnic differences in age at death are not known. The release of national COVID-19 death data by racial/ethnic group now permits analysis of age-specific mortality rates for these groups and the non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (NHAPI) population. Our objectives were to examine variation in age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates by racial/ethnicity and to calculate the impact of this mortality using years of potential life lost (YPLL). Methods and findings This cross-sectional study used the recently publicly available data on US COVID-19 deaths with reported race/ethnicity, for the time period

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study

2020

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“…† † † Corresponding author: Lauren M. Rossen, lrossen@cdc.gov. 1 National Center for Health Statistics, CDC.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020

Rossen

Branum

Ahmad

et al. 2020

MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep.

346

352

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On October 20, 2020, this report was posted as an MMWR Early Release on the MMWR website (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr). As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1-6). † Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26-October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC's National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015-2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25-44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care. Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to * CDC official counts of cases and deaths are released daily at https://covid.cdc. gov/covid-data-tracker/. † https://www.medrxiv

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“…To make our inferences, we use both confirm cases and deceased counts. In some regions, sub reporting of COVID-19 related deaths may become relevant, especially in places hit by a severe outbreak [40]. Nonetheless, deaths are a more reliable data source to estimate a COVID-19 outbreak, especially in the forecast of hospital demand.…”

Section: Observational Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting hospital demand in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic and estimates of lockdown-induced 2nd waves

Capistrán

Capella²,

Christen

2020

Preprint

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We present a forecasting model aim to predict hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Our SEIRD type model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model explicitly branching probabilities and non-exponential residence times in each latent and infected compartments. Using both hospital admittance confirmed cases and deaths, we infer the contact rate and the initial conditions of the dynamical system, considering breakpoints to model lockdown interventions and the increase in effective population size due to lockdown relaxation. The latter features let us model lockdown-induced 2nd waves. Our Bayesian approach allows us to produce timely probabilistic forecasts of hospital demand. We have applied the model to analyze more than 70 metropolitan areas and 32 states in Mexico.

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Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020

Cited by 161 publications

References 5 publications

Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study

Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020

Forecasting hospital demand in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic and estimates of lockdown-induced 2nd waves

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