Preliminary findings of the impact of COVID-19 on drugs crypto markets

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented consequences on the world economy. The impact of the pandemic on illicit drug market remains scant. We expose the potential consequences the COVID-19 pandemic could have on the ability of people who use drugs to source their illicit drugs via cryptomarkets. Methods We analyzed 262 self-reported submissions of illicit drug transactions on the darkweb. The self-reports include the date of the transaction, the types of illicit drugs bought/sold, and whether the shipment of the illicit drugs succeeded, had issues (ex. unusually long delivery, an error in the type of drug shipped, quantity or concentration of the drug), or failed. Results Between January 1st , 2020 and March 21, 2020, successful deliveries represented 60% to 100% of transactions. Starting on March 21 however, the share of shipments that had issues or failed increased rapidly and represented a majority of all shipments. At the peak of the market disruption, the successful deliveries represented only 21% of all transactions. Conclusion Illicit drug transactions on the darkweb were disrupted at the same time as lockdowns were put in place in the United States and in the United Kingdom. While no causation link can be established, the correlation suggests that lockdowns could have disrupted drug cryptomarkets activities. We discuss the market disruption in light of the literature.

COVID-19 and the health of people who use drugs: What is and what could be?

“…But, as noted by Bergeron et al in this special issue (2020), these trade shifts are themselves unpredictable, as even cryptomarkets are not immune to COVID-19 effects. They suggest that the proportion of problematic cryptomarket orders (those that had issues or were never received) increased from 20% prior to COVID-19-related lockdowns to 79% during the lockdown ( Bergeron, Decary-Hetu, & Giommoni, 2020 ). However, these interruptions were reasonably short-lived with the number of failed deliveries dropping to 0% by the middle of April 2020, suggesting rapid adaptation of the underground economy to the new circumstances of drug markets in the time of COVID-19.…”

Use of Alcohol, Tobacco, Cannabis, and Other Substances During the First Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Europe: a Survey on 36,000 European Substance Users

“…During the pandemic, opportunities to purchase alcohol have declined in many countries, with outlets, kiosks and bars ordered to stay closed or to restrict their opening hours in order to reduce the number of personal contacts. However, for illicit drugs, availability is also considered to affect substance use behaviour, and some market disruptions were reported as well [17]. Preliminary data from Canada and Europe suggest a drop in availability of some substances during the pandemic, with manifest shortages in several EU countries [18].…”

What happened to drug detections and drug-offences during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) in Queensland, Australia

“…However, there is a very limited foundation of empirical research from which to draw our hypotheses. In our comprehensive literature search, we located only one study that focussed exclusively on drugrelated offending (Bergeron, Décary-Hétu, & Giommoni, 2020), which examined the effects of COVID-19 on online drug transactions and crypto-market responses. Much of the commentary, thus far, has been speculative, albeit informed by drug user and drug market responses to different conditions and contexts.…”