Preliminary report on evaluating alternatives for reducing upholstered furniture fire losses

Abstract

This paper presents preliminary results from a pilot project designed to test the utility of applying decision analysis to fire hazard problems. To test the methodology, an analysis is being performed to determine the effectiveness and economic consequences of alternative Intervention strategies for reducing upholstered furniture fire losses in residences. A probabilistic model has been developed to assess quantitatively the expected fire losses under each alternative. This paper describes the analysis on one alternative: the proposed upholstered furniture standard currently under consideration by the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The loss model for this alternative is described in some detail. Preliminary results on costs, losses, and cost plus loss to society and the present value of these quantities are presented.A subsequent report will update this analysis with revised data, and present a comparison of the proposed standard with other alternative strategies.

Decision analysis of strategies for reducing upholstered furniture fire losses

“…Thus, P (home/rep, >R) L (home , rep, >R) + P (home/rep, >R) L (Home", rep, >R) = L(rep,>R) = 0.08489 (14) where L(x ,...,x ) = average loss given that events x CN t? ft (1) co-</> The probabilities P (home/rep, >R) and P (home/rep, >R) are calculated from the fire loss model (probability tree) . Thus, equation 14is a single equation in two unknowns, and it can be solve d if one more independent equation involving L (home, rep, >R) and L (home, rep, >R) can be developed.…”