The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
(henceforth referred to as ?the Federation?) has been characterised by a
decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of
this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the
decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and
Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented
towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the
development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using
statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative
demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th
and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive
migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the
birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural
population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic,
social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration
has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20
and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the
decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the
most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age
population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the
primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to
plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the
federation?s overall population policy.