Premature Deaths Attributable to the Consumption of Ultraprocessed Foods in Brazil

The estimated burden of ultra-processed foods on cardiovascular disease outcomes in Brazil: A modeling study

“…In Brazil, as in many other low and middle-income countries, traditional fresh and minimally processed foods have been replaced by ready-to-(h)eat UPF over the last two decades (16,47). Although there are few studies on the estimated impact of these dietary changes, our previous study estimated that if UPF intake increase by around 50% (to intakes similar to those of Mexico), the all-cause attributable deaths would almost double, while if UPF intake tripled (to the intakes equivalent to those in the United States), the attributable deaths would be increased by 250% (28). Also, other study has estimated that the impact of different reduction scenarios for saturated and trans fats, salt and added sugar from culinary ingredients, processed and ultra-processed foods could avert from 37.6 to 196.4 thousand deaths from CVD in Brazil, in 2,048 (24).…”

“…Based on this modeling study, the consumption of UPF is associated with a significant CVD burden in Brazil, contributing to about 22% of the premature CVD events or approximately 19,200 premature deaths, 74,900 incident cases and 883,000 DALYs in 2019. The premature CVD deaths attributable to UPF intake also represent 34% of the attributable all-cause deaths to UPF ( 25 ). Additionally, if UPF intake was progressively reduced by 10% up to 50%, we estimated that attributable CVD events would be reduced by 11 to 52%, and, if consumption was reduced to that of the first quintile of UPF distribution at the baseline (2017-2018), approximately 81% of the attributable CVD events would be averted.…”

“…This study adapted a previously validated comparative risk assessment model ( 25 ) to estimate the burden of CVD deaths, new cases, and DALYs attributable to the consumption of UPF and to estimate the potential impact of reducing the consumption of UPF by 10, 20, and 50% and to the 1st quintile of UPF intake of the baseline scenario on these indicators.…”

“…Our previous study estimated that, approximately, 10.5% (57 thousand) of the all-cause premature deaths in 2019 were attributable to the consumption of UPF. Reducing the contribution of UPF to the total energy intake by 10 to 50% would, respectively, avert some 5.9 thousand to 29.3 thousand deaths (10.3% to 51.4% of the attributable deaths) in the year of reference (25). Alternatively, if UPF intake reached levels of consumption such as those from Mexico (29.8%) or the United States (57.0%), the attributable deaths would double or quadruple, respectively (26)(27)(28).…”

“…Despite the existing modeling studies to estimate the potential impact of specific dietary risk factors, especially of macro and micronutrient intakes and specific food groups ( 22 ), the health effects of dietary patterns based on the purpose and extent of food processing on morbimortality are scarce ( 23 – 25 ). Our previous study estimated that, approximately, 10.5% (57 thousand) of the all-cause premature deaths in 2019 were attributable to the consumption of UPF.…”