Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8

Predictability of self-organizing systems

“…11,12 III. THE PREDICTION ALGORITHM Our method of forecasting resembles the algorithm M8 introduced by Keilis-Borok et al, 6 which is currently being studied as a possible means of using worldwide seismic data sets to predict the largest earthquakes in any given region. The M8 algorithm is based on the hypothesis that regional small scale seismicity may be used to diagnose an 7 upcoming large event.…”

Analysis of precursory seismicity patterns in Zagros (Iran) by CN algorithm

“…An increasing number of studies show that patterns of occurrence of small and moderate earthquakes may bring relevant information on the location and time of occurrence of future major earthquakes (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990;Jackson and Kagan, 1999;Kossobokov et al, 1999;Kagan and Jackson, 2000;Evison, 2004, 2005;Tiampo et al, 2008). Amongst the different proposed methods, the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and ) is considered in this study, since it is fully formalized and has been already submitted to a rigorous validation process.…”

Variable predictability in deterministic dissipative sandpile

“…On the one hand, there exist the prediction algorithms which efficiently forecast strong earthquakes in advance (Kossobokov and Shebalin, 2003). The foreshock activity of middle-size earthquakes underlies these algorithms (Keilis-Borok, 2003). On the other hand, some scientists argue that these algorithms hardly reflect the physics of the seismicity and that the efficiency of the current outcome of the prediction will decline later (Geller et al, 1997).…”

“…The constructed model remains predictable but the growth of activity underlies the prediction of strong events. The prediction algorithm corresponds to that for real seismicity (Keilis-Borok, 2003). The highest efficiency of prediction is attained when the system comes to the subcritical state.…”