Preoperative CA19-9 and GGT ratio as a prognostic indicator in ampullary carcinoma 

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In recent years, more and more inflammatory indicators have been studied to predict the long-term survival of patients with ampullary carcinoma (AC) after radical resection, but these prognostic indicators are still controversial. Therefore, based on previous inflammation scores, this study established a novel, easily accessible, more feasible and more predictive prognostic marker [Carbohydrate antigen199 to gamma-glutamyltransferase ratio (CA19-9/GGT)] to better assess the prognostic significance in AC patients undergoing radical resection. METHODS: Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed by Cox regression model. Correlation between CA19-9/GGT and clinicopathological variables were analyzed by Chi-squared test, Fisher ' s exact test, independent sample t test and Mann-Whitney U test. The performance of prognostic indexes is compared by the consistency index (C-index). The prediction accuracy of nomogram is further confirmed by calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: CA19-9/GGT was an independent risk factor affecting OS [P = 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.459, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.450–4.167] and RFS (P = 0.002, HR = 2.333, 95% CI: 1.371–3.971) in multivariate analysis. The optimal cut-off value of CA19-9/GGT was 0.14. In CA19-9/GGT correlation analysis, high risk group (> 0.14) was significantly associated with poor prognosis. The predictive performance of CA19-9/GGT (OS: C-index = 0.753, RFS: C-index = 0.745) was confirmed to be superior to other prognostic indicators according to the C-index. Compared with the simple AJCC staging system, the Nomogram prediction model (OS: C-index = 0.787, RFS: C-index = 0.795) established by the combination of CA19-9/GGT and AJCC 8th TNM staging system has higher prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: CA19-9/GGT was an independent prognostic indicator after radical resection of AC. Incorporating CA19-9/GGT into the AJCC TNM staging system optimized the prediction accuracy of the TNM staging system, and further verified the predictive value of CA19-9/GGT.