Preparedness is Essential for Western Pacific Islands During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mei, Yadong; Hu, Jijia

doi:10.1017/dmp.2020.102

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For each selected article, publication details [title, first author, publication year, journal name and publisher]; design and population [country, study design, study period, and sample size]; participants' characteristics and major findings [number of deaths, case fatality rate, basic reproduction number, confidence interval, methods used, SD, and other related statistics] were extracted. Forty‐five research articles 7,9‐11,14‐54 for R 0 and 34 research articles 13,18,50,55‐85 for CFR estimation were selected.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Ahammed

Anjum

Rahman

et al. 2021

Health Science Reports

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Background and aims Realizing the transmission potential and the magnitude of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) aids public health monitoring, strategies, and preparation. Two fundamental parameters, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID‐19, help in this understanding process. The objective of this study was to estimate the R 0 and CFR of COVID‐19 and assess whether the parameters vary in different regions of the world. Methods We carried out a systematic review to find the reported estimates of the R 0 and the CFR in articles from international databases between January 1 and August 31, 2020. Random‐effect models and Forest plots were implemented to evaluate the mean effect size of R 0 and the CFR. Furthermore, R 0 and CFR of the studies were quantified based on geographic location, the tests/thousand population, and the median population age of the countries where the studies were conducted. To assess statistical heterogeneity among the selected articles, the I 2 statistic and the Cochran's Q test were used. Results Forty‐five studies involving R 0 and 34 studies involving CFR were included. The pooled estimation of R 0 was 2.69 (95% CI: 2.40, 2.98), and that of the CFR was 2.67 (2.25, 3.13). The CFR in different regions of the world varied significantly, from 2.49 (2.08, 2.94) in Asia to 3.40 (2.81, 4.04) in North America. We observed higher mean CFR values for the countries with lower tests (3.15 vs 2.16) and greater median population age (3.13 vs 2.27). However, R 0 did not vary significantly in different regions of the world. Conclusions An R 0 of 2.69 and a CFR of 2.67 indicate the severity of the COVID‐19. Although R 0 and CFR may vary over time, space, and demographics, we recommend considering these figures in control and prevention measures.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Ahammed

Anjum

Rahman

et al. 2021

Health Science Reports

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“…Focusing on second waves in insulated areas during the COVID-19 pandemic is of great value to analyze the spreading and containment of infectious diseases, where the lockdown of islands constitutes a paradigmatic scenario, with the potential to be applied to continental regions (13). For example, the risk of COVID-19 import to the Pacific Islands had been assessed and analyzed in the early stages (27)(28)(29). The use of modeling tools is a complement to field studies that can be used to anticipate the progress of a pandemic and thus help health authorities to make decisions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Secondary Infection Waves of COVID-19 in an Insular Region: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Spain

et al. 2020

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The Spanish government declared the lockdown on March 14th, 2020 to tackle the fast-spreading of COVID-19. As a consequence, the Balearic Islands remained almost fully isolated due to the closing of airports and ports, these isolation measures and the home-based confinement have led to a low prevalence of COVID-19 in this region. We propose a compartmental model for the spread of COVID-19 including five compartments (Susceptible, Exposed, Presymptomatic Infective, Diseased, and Recovered), and the mobility between municipalities. The model parameters are calibrated with the temporal series of confirmed cases provided by the Spanish Ministry of Health. After calibration, the proposed model captures the trend of the official confirmed cases before and after the lockdown. We show that the estimated number of cases depends strongly on the initial dates of the local outbreak onset and the number of imported cases before the lockdown. Our estimations indicate that the population has not reached the level of herd immunization necessary to prevent future outbreaks. While the low prevalence, in comparison to mainland Spain, has prevented the saturation of the health system, this low prevalence translates into low immunization rates, therefore facilitating the propagation of new outbreaks that could lead to secondary waves of COVID-19 in the region. These findings warn about scenarios regarding after-lockdown-policies and the risk of second outbreaks, emphasize the need for widespread testing, and could potentially be extrapolated to other insular and continental regions.

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“…To better understand and convey the pandemic(COVID-19) status in different countries, a good number of articles, short papers, Studies, editorials have been recently written, which rightly analyzed the outbreak, changes in the number of infections and deaths (Mei and Hu, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technology intervention for preventing COVID-19 outbreak

Pandey

Litoriya

2021

ITP

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PurposeThe purpose for writing this article is derived from the misery and chaos prevalent in the world due to the coronavirus pandemic – since late 2019 and still continuing as of December 2020.Design/methodology/approachA blockchain-based solution to verify the country visit trail and disease and treatment history of the passengers who arrive at the immigration counters located at various national borders and entry points is proposed. A fuzzy inference based suspect identifier system is also presented in this article that could be utilized to make further decisions based on the degree of suspicion observed on a particular passenger.FindingsThis paper attempted to put forth a blockchain-based system which consumes the healthcare and visit trail summary of a passenger (appearing for an interview before an immigration officer) and forwards it to a fuzzy inference system to reach to a conclusion that the passenger should be advised to self-quarantine, detained, or should be allowed to enter. Such a system would help to make correct decisions at the immigration counters to check pandemic diseases, like COVID-19, right at the entry points.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this work are manifold. First, the proposed framework works independent of the type of pandemic and is a readymade tool to check the spread of disease through infected human carriers. Second, the proposed framework will keep the mortality rates under check, which would give ample time for the authorities to save the lives of the people with co-morbidities and age vulnerabilities (Vichitvanichphong et al., 2018). Third, it is a general phenomenon to restrict the flights from the country where the first few cases of infection are discovered; however, the infected person, at the same time, might travel through alternative routes. The blockchain-enabled proposed framework ensures the detection of such cases at no other cost. Finally, the solution may appear costly in the first place, but it has the potential to hold back the revenue of the countries that would otherwise be spent on reactive measures.Originality/valueAs of now no other study or research article provides the solution to the biggest problem persists in the world in this way. The contribution is original and worth applying.

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Preparedness is Essential for Western Pacific Islands During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: Objectives: To clarify the pandemic status in Western Pacific countries or territories. Methods: The WHO's daily situation reports of COVID-

Cited by 12 publications

References 13 publications

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Risk of Secondary Infection Waves of COVID-19 in an Insular Region: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Spain

Technology intervention for preventing COVID-19 outbreak

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