Prescribed Optimism: Is It Right to Be Wrong About the Future?

Armor, David A.; Massey, Cade; Sackett, Aaron M.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02089.x

Cited by 67 publications

(122 citation statements)

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“…Although Armor, Massey, and Sackett (2008) found that participants always prescribed optimism for the protagonists in the scenarios in their study, they did find several moderators that decreased the prescription for optimism. Of most interest to the current research, they found that people prescribed less optimism when commitment to a course of action was low compared to high or when a protagonist lacked control over the outcome.…”

Section: Optimistic About Optimismmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…In Experiments 1A and 1B, we aimed to test the moderating effect of decision phase on the preference for optimism. Armor, Massey, and Sackett (2008) found a stronger preference for optimism when commitment to a course of action was high rather than low (as the optimism-performance hypothesis would also predict), but they found that overall, people still prescribed optimism rather than accuracy in both high and low commitment conditions. In contrast, the optimism-performance hypothesis predicts that people would prescribe accuracy rather than optimism while deliberating about a course of action (precommitment).…”

Section: Experiments 1a and 1b: Prescribed Optimism By Decision Phasementioning

confidence: 87%

“…For example, in the low commitment condition, a protagonist had not decided whether to have surgery or another treatment, and in the high commitment condition, he had decided on surgery; however, this protagonist would have a long road to recovery either way, and it is unclear whether participants prescribed optimism for this protagonist with the 10 OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OPTIMISM protagonist's decision in mind or the road to recovery in mind. Thus, we employed scenarios from Armor, Massey, and Sackett (2008) and, like them, included a manipulation of decision phase within-subjects in order to test whether the same individual would endorse optimism to differing degrees depending on the circumstances. We modified the materials with the intention of making the decision phases and objective of the prescriptions clear.…”

Section: Experiments 1a and 1b: Prescribed Optimism By Decision Phasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The four scenarios came from Armor, Massey, and Sackett (2008) and are reproduced in Appendix A. They were about someone applying for an academic award, investing in a new business, undergoing open-heart surgery, or hosting a party.…”

Section: Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical research has begun to explore directly whether, like them, people generally believe in the benefits of optimism. One study to tackle this question suggests that they do (Armor, Massey, & Sackett, 2008). Their participants recommended optimism over pessimism or realism in a variety of situations.…”

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confidence: 99%

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(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

Tenney

Logg

Moore

2015

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

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A series of experiments investigated why people value optimism and whether they are right to do so. In Experiments 1A-B, participants prescribed more optimism for someone implementing decisions than for someone deliberating, indicating that people prescribe optimism selectively, when it can affect performance. Furthermore, participants believed optimism improved outcomes when a person's actions had considerable, rather than little, influence over the outcome (Experiment 2). Experiments 3-4 tested the accuracy of this belief; optimism improved persistence, but it did not improve performance as much as participants expected. Experiments 5A-B found that participants overestimated the relationship between optimism and performance even when their focus was not on optimism exclusively. In sum, people prescribe optimism when they believe it has the opportunity to improve the chance of success-unfortunately, people may be overly optimistic about just how much optimism can do. Word count: 138Keywords: optimism, bias, accuracy, deliberation, implementation, performance 2 OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OPTIMISM Optimistic About Optimism:The Belief That Optimism Improves Performance "Optimism is faith that leads to achievement." --Helen Keller (1903, p. 67) "Wisdom is clearly to believe what one desires, for the belief is one of the indispensable preliminary conditions of the realization of its object." --William James (1882, p. 75) William James, writing in 1882, and Helen Keller, in 1903, believed that optimism leads to achievement. Empirical research has begun to explore directly whether, like them, people generally believe in the benefits of optimism. One study to tackle this question suggests that they do (Armor, Massey, & Sackett, 2008). Their participants recommended optimism over pessimism or realism in a variety of situations. People believed, in the authors' words, that "it is right to be wrong about the future." Optimism, in this view, has so much to recommend it that it is worth sacrificing accuracy for (Schneider, 2001).It would be nice if it was possible to be optimistic and accurate at the same time. But if optimism is the inclination to expect the best possible outcome, that would require the best outcome to be the most likely outcome. If people always prescribe optimism over accuracy, as Armor, Massey, and Sackett (2008) suggest, that would be remarkable because there are many advantages to being realistic. Accurate forecasts can help people decide where best to invest their limited time and money in education, recreation, social relationships, and professional opportunities (Baumeister, Campbell, Krueger, & Vohs, 2003;Forsyth, Lawrence, Burnette, & Baumeister, 2007). There is an undeniable benefit to anticipating potential risks, losses, embarrassments, and disasters. Overly optimistic entrepreneurs lose a great deal of money on businesses that fail (Balasuriya, Muradoglu, & Ayton, 2010;Camerer & Lovallo, 1999).Excessive optimism can undermine the motivation to take protective action against risks 3 OPTIMI...

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Section: Optimistic About Optimismmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Experiments 1a and 1b: Prescribed Optimism By Decision Phasementioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Experiments 1a and 1b: Prescribed Optimism By Decision Phasementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

Tenney

Logg

Moore

2015

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

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Do people desire optimism from others during a novel global crisis?

Miller,

Strueder,

Park

et al. 2023

Behavioral Decision Making

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During a global crisis, does the desire for good news also mean an endorsement of an optimistic bias? Five pre‐registered studies, conducted at the start of the COVID pandemic, examined people's lay prescriptions for thinking about uncertainty—specifically whether they thought forecasters should be optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic in how they estimated key likelihoods. Participants gave prescriptions for forecasters with different roles (e.g., self, family member, and public official) and for several key outcomes (e.g., contracting COVID and vaccine development). Overall, prescribed optimism was not the norm. In fact, for negative outcomes that were of high concern, participants generally wanted others to have a pessimistic bias in how they estimated likelihoods. For positive outcomes, people favored more accurate estimation. These patterns held regardless of the assumed forecaster's role. A common justification for advocating for a pessimistic bias in forecasts was to increase others' engagement in protective or preventative behaviors.

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Level of Confidence of Male and Female Youth Soccer Players: On Detecting a False Underconfidence

Invernizzi

2017

Overconfidence in SMEs

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Prescribed Optimism: Is It Right to Be Wrong About the Future?

Cited by 67 publications

References 10 publications

(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

Do people desire optimism from others during a novel global crisis?

Level of Confidence of Male and Female Youth Soccer Players: On Detecting a False Underconfidence

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