Present‐day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

Wu, Chao; Venevsky, Sergey; Sitch, Stephen; Yang, Yang; Wang, Menghui; Wang, Lei; Gao, Yu

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1917

Cited by 33 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 101 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The circumpolar boreal forests store large quantities of carbon and are currently being subjected to increasing stress from fires (Flannigan et al, 2009;De Groot et al, 2013;Shvidenko et al, 2011), pests (Kurz et al, 2008), and rising temperatures (Screen and Simmonds, 2010), exhibiting elevated rates of tree mortality over the observational record (Allen et al, 2010). Modeling studies suggest a credible potential for large-scale biome shifts across major boreal regions in response to high-emissions climate scenarios over the next century (Foster et al, 2019;Mann et al, 2012;Shuman et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2017). The sign, 930 speed, and magnitude of the climate impact of boreal forest changes remain uncertain, although a strong potential exists for a sizable net warming contribution to global climate.…”

Section: Imminent Tipping Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Together with climate-driven changes to precipitation and soil moisture, more frequent and intense wildfires may drive declines in boreal forest productivity within the interior of boreal 765 regions (Foster et al, 2019;Wang et al, 2019). Region-specific modeling studies focusing on Alaska (Foster et al, 2019;Mann et al, 2012), Siberia (Shuman et al, 2015), and China's boreal forests (Wu et al, 2017) support the potential for future climate-induced shifts in vegetation consistent with such patterns.…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

Wang

Hausfather

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements. We also evaluate which tipping elements are more imminent and whether shifts will likely manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements are significant to future global climate and will likely affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the current century. However, assessments under different emissions scenarios indicate a strong potential to reduce or avoid impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. Most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some tipping elements are perhaps more accurately termed climate feedbacks. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

show abstract

Section: Imminent Tipping Elementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 98%

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

Wang

Hausfather

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…, Wu et al. ). Therefore, more rigorous analysis of seasonal distribution of precipitation regime will offer more detailed insight into the role of water‐related variables in governing spatiotemporal dynamics of this mixed forest using high‐resolution climate data (Stephenson , Guan et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Patterns in the relative dominance of evergreen and deciduous tree species and climate correlates such as temperature and precipitation variables have attracted much interest in the past decades (Givnish , Buitenwerf and Higgins , Wu et al. , Zanne et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic seasonality is linked to the occurrence of the mixed evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved forests in China

Berg

Xie

2019

Ecosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved tree species can coexist across the globe and constitute different broad‐leaved forests along large‐scale geographical and climatic gradients. A better understanding of climatic influence on the distribution of mixed evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved forest is of fundamental importance when assessing this mixed forest's resilience and predicting potential dynamics of broad‐leaved forests under future climate change. Here, we quantified the horizontal distribution of this mixed forest in mountains in relation to climate seasonality by compiling vegetation information from the earlier records and our own field sampling on major subtropical mountains of China. We found that the probability of occurrence of this forest in subtropical mountains was positively associated with the latitude but not the longitude. The occurrence probability of this forest was observed at high‐temperature but not precipitation seasonality mountains. Temperature seasonality was five times more important than precipitation seasonality in explaining the total variation of occurrence of this mixed forest. For its distribution, our results shed light on that temperature seasonality was generally a more powerful predictor than precipitation seasonality for montane mixed forest distribution. Collectively, this study clearly underscores the important role of temperature seasonality, a previously not quantified climatic variable, in the occurrence of this mixed forest along geographical gradients and hence yields useful insight into our understanding of climate–vegetation relationships and climate change vulnerability assessment in a changing climate.

show abstract

“…Burned areas in tropical and boreal forests are smaller, but their high productivity and carbon storage capacity results in significant emissions of numerous greenhouse gases (e.g., CO 2 , CH 4 ; Andreae and Merlet, 2001;Pereira et al, 1999). Globally, total fire emissions are equivalent to approximately one-third of fossil fuel burning emissions (Le Quéré et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2017). Net emissions, stemming from deforestation or increased fire activity, are much smaller but poorly constrained and highly variable on interannual timescales, especially through induced changes in fire sensitivity of highly productive ecosystems by El Niño-La Niña and other climatic phenomena (Duncan et al, 2003;Langenfelds et al, 2002;Le Page et al, 2008;van der Werf et al, 2004van der Werf et al, , 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis fire patterns and drivers with a global SEVER-FIRE v1.0 model incorporated into dynamic global vegetation model and satellite and on-ground observations

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Biomass burning is an important environmental process with a strong influence on vegetation and on the atmospheric composition. It competes with microbes and herbivores to convert biomass to CO2 and it is a major contributor of gases and aerosols to the atmosphere. To better understand and predict global fire occurrence, fire models have been developed and coupled to dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and Earth system models (ESMs). We present SEVER-FIRE v1.0 (Socio-Economic and natural Vegetation ExpeRimental global fire model version 1.0), which is incorporated into the SEVER DGVM. One of the major focuses of SEVER-FIRE is an implementation of pyrogenic behavior of humans (timing of their activities and their willingness and necessity to ignite or suppress fire), related to socioeconomic and demographic conditions in a geographical domain of the model application. Burned areas and emissions from the SEVER model are compared to the Global Fire Emission Database version 2 (GFED), derived from satellite observations, while number of fires is compared with regional historical fire statistics. We focus on both the model output accuracy and its assumptions regarding fire drivers and perform (1) an evaluation of the predicted spatial and temporal patterns, focusing on fire incidence, seasonality and interannual variability; (2) analysis to evaluate the assumptions concerning the etiology, or causation, of fire, including climatic and anthropogenic drivers, as well as the type and amount of vegetation. SEVER reproduces the main features of climate-driven interannual fire variability at a regional scale, for example the large fires associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño event in Indonesia and Central and South America, which had critical ecological and atmospheric impacts. Spatial and seasonal patterns of fire incidence reveal some model inaccuracies, and we discuss the implications of the distribution of vegetation types inferred by the DGVM and of assumed proxies of human fire practices. We further suggest possible development directions to enable such models to better project future fire activity.

show abstract

Present‐day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

Cited by 33 publications

References 101 publications

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

Climatic seasonality is linked to the occurrence of the mixed evergreen and deciduous broad‐leaved forests in China

Analysis fire patterns and drivers with a global SEVER-FIRE v1.0 model incorporated into dynamic global vegetation model and satellite and on-ground observations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About