Present-day climate and projected future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador

Chimborazo, Oscar; Vuille, Mathias

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03483-y

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Finally, precipitable water was obtained from a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation with a domain of 50 km horizontal resolution (100 × 100 grid cells, centered at 1.77 • S-78.10 • W) and 51 levels in the vertical with a top pressure of 10 hPa. The WRF experiment was forced by the Community Climate System Model version 4, satisfactorily employed in South America and recently in Ecuador [60]. Precipitable water is an absolute measure of the total water of the air and equals the amount of water if all the water vapor was condensed [37,61].…”

Section: Cross-equatorial Flow Over Western Amazon and Precipitation ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Vargas

Chimborazo

László

et al. 2022

Water

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The variability of the rainfall stable isotopic values (δ2Hp, δ18Op) in the Ecuadorian Amazon to the Andes presents a marked local “altitude” effect. At the same time, this complex orography creates diverse precipitation regimes (unimodal, bimodal, and three-modal) that make it difficult to establish a relationship with the local amount. Nevertheless, stations along these regions show a similar intra-annual isotopic variability, with lower values during MAM and ON. In contrast, higher values are found during DJF and JAS in a w-shaped pattern, suggesting a common regional controller. A monthly δ2Hp and δ18Op collection campaign was established in Central Ecuador (n = 30) to complement stations biased towards the northern and southern parts. Based on back trajectory analysis, the results demonstrated that moisture arrives from two primary sources: the Tropical North Atlantic (DJFM) and the Amazon Basin (JAS). Nevertheless, their convergence (AMJ and ON) is the crucial factor modulating the lowest isotopic values. Precisely, this convergence is stronger at the V-Index region (5° S–5° N, 65°–75° W), where the wind seasonality and reversal at low levels are enhanced, allowing the inter-hemispheric moisture flux transport (cross-equatorial flow). We propose that the amount of rainfall located at the V-Index region is a more robust approach for explaining the δ2Hp and δ18Op variability rather than the local amount.

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Section: Cross-equatorial Flow Over Western Amazon and Precipitation ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Vargas

Chimborazo

László

et al. 2022

Water

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“…For example, a common bias highlighted in this study is the dry bias over the eastern Ecuadorian Andes slopes by the RCA model and, specifically, the S44 WRF model. Several WRF‐based studies have shown that, under certain parameterizations and higher spatial resolution, precipitation over this region can be either overestimated or improved (e.g., Chimborazo & Vuille, 2021; Junquas et al., 2022; Ochoa et al., 2016). Consequently, the choice of an appropriate convection parameterization scheme becomes crucial in enhancing the reliability of RCM simulations due to better representation of rainfall characteristics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of Regional Climate Model Precipitation Simulations Over the Terrain‐Complex Andes‐Amazon Transition Region

Gutierrez,

Junquas,

Armijos

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used to assess future impacts associated with climate change at regional and local scales. RCMs must represent relevant climate variables in the present‐day climate to be considered fit‐for‐purpose for impact assessment. This condition is particularly difficult to meet over complex regions such as the Andes‐Amazon transition region, where the Andean topography and abundance of tropical rainfall regimes remain a challenge for numerical climate models. In this study, we evaluate the ability of 30 regional climate simulations (6 RCMs driven by 10 global climate models) to reproduce historical (1981–2005) rainfall climatology and temporal variability over the Andes‐Amazon transition region. We assess spatio‐temporal features such as spatial distribution of rainfall, focusing on the orographic effects over the Andes‐Amazon “rainfall hotspots” region, and seasonal and interannual precipitation variability. The Eta RCM exhibits the highest spatial correlation (up to 0.6) and accurately reproduces mean annual precipitation and orographic precipitation patterns across the region, while some other RCMs have good performances at specific locations. Most RCMs simulate a wet bias over the highlands, particularly at the eastern Andean summits, as evidenced by the 100%–2,500% overestimations of precipitation in these regions. Annual cycles are well represented by most RCMs, but peak seasons are exaggerated, especially at equatorial locations. No RCM is particularly skillful in reproducing the interannual variability patterns. Results highlight skills and weaknesses of the different regional climate simulations, and can assist in the selection of regional climate simulations for impact studies in the Andes‐Amazon transition zone.

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“…The Amazon region to the east experiences year-round rainfall, with peaks in March-May and October-November, modulated by the ITCZ, moist air from the Amazon basin, and easterly winds. The Andean highlands are subject to orographic precipitation as moist air masses ascend the mountainous terrain [23].…”

Section: Region Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Waves in Ecuador under Climate Change: Insights from HadGEM-RegCM4 Coupled Model

Portalanza,

Ortega,

Garzon

et al. 2024

Earth

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This study examines heat wave projections across Ecuador’s Coastal, Highlands, and Amazon regions for 1975–2004 and 2070–2099 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Employing dynamic downscaling, we identify significant increases in heatwave intensity and maximum air temperatures (Tmax), particularly under RCP 8.5, with the Coastal region facing the most severe impacts. A moderate positive correlation between Tmax and climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) suggests regional climatic influences on heatwave trends. These findings highlight the critical need for integrated climate adaptation strategies in Ecuador, focusing on mitigating risks to health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Proposed measures include urban forestry initiatives and the promotion of cool surfaces, alongside enhancing public awareness and access to cooling resources. This research contributes to the understanding of climate change impacts in Latin America, underscoring the urgency of adopting targeted adaptation and resilience strategies against urban heat island effects in Ecuador’s urban centers.

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Present-day climate and projected future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador

Cited by 19 publications

References 76 publications

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Rainwater Isotopic Composition in the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon Reflects Cross-Equatorial Flow Seasonality

Performance of Regional Climate Model Precipitation Simulations Over the Terrain‐Complex Andes‐Amazon Transition Region

Projected Heat Waves in Ecuador under Climate Change: Insights from HadGEM-RegCM4 Coupled Model

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