Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation

Park, In-Hong; Yeh, Sang‐Wook; Min, Seung‐Ki; Ham, Yoo‐Geun; Kirtman, Ben P.

doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00620-5

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Despite the strong diversity among the SWG models, the precipitation sensitivity in the CP is enhanced with the increase in WPI in the PD climate, which may have contributed to the eastward shift of the convective zone under greenhouse warming. Thus, in addition to the warm pool size in PD climate (Park et al 2022b), our results suggest that the WPI is also an important factor for the model uncertainties in tropical precipitation projections. Therefore, aligning with other factors (i.e., IPWP size) more realistic simulations of the WPI in PD climate would be helpful to improve the credibility of the simulated projections.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Intermodel relation between present-day warm pool intensity and future precipitation changes

Kug

Pathirana

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Tropical convection plays an important role in regional and global climate variability, and future changes in tropical precipitation under anthropogenic global warming are critical for projecting future changes in regional climate. In this study, by analyzing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6 models, we show that changes in projected tropical precipitation in CMIP6 models vary among models, but they are largely associated with the model’s warm pool intensity in the present-day (PD) climate. Models with stronger warm pools in the PD simulation tend to simulate an increase in precipitation in the central Pacific (CP) and a decrease in Maritime Continent (MC) under greenhouse warming. Significant differences in precipitation between the CP and MC regions induce low-level westerly anomalies over the western-central Pacific, favoring sea surface temperature warming in the CP region, suggesting that the associated air–sea interactions yield a particular tropical pattern in response to anthropogenic forcing.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Intermodel relation between present-day warm pool intensity and future precipitation changes

Kug

Pathirana

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…For the precipitation field, while there are many local impacts of the warm pool area bias in the Pacific (Park, Yeh, Min, Ham, & Kirtman, 2022), we will focus here on remote teleconnections into the extratropics and Atlantic. Models with a smaller warm pool tend to simulate more precipitation in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada (gray box in Figure 2f) and more precipitation in northeastern South America and the tropical West Atlantic (red box in Figure 2f) (see also Figures S2c and S2d for scatter plots of all 40 models).…”

Section: Implications For the Subtropical Jet And Precipitation In Th...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Warm Pool Bias in CMIP6 Models on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Subtropical Jet and Precipitation

Liu

Grise

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Although the multi‐model average compares well with observations, individually most of the latest climate models do not simulate a realistic size of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool in the present‐day climate. This study explores the implications of this warm pool size bias in climate models in Northern Hemisphere winter. The warm pool size bias in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models is related to the subtropical jet and precipitation distribution, both in the present‐day climate and in response to climate change, through extratropical Rossby wave trains and tropical circulation pathways. Based on these relationships, emergent constraints are developed to observationally constrain the future subtropical jet response over Asia and the Atlantic Ocean and precipitation response over North and Central America, which can help to reduce uncertainty in future projections of these features. Thus, accurate model simulation of the warm pool in the present‐day climate is important for future projections of the subtropical jet and precipitation.

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“…Wang et al demonstrated that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models simulate an excessively tilted thermocline, leading to excessive SST variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean (Wang et al, 2021). Previous studies have shown that simulate a larger warm pool area in the present day and predicted an excessive warming in the future in the eastern tropical Pacific due to intensified ocean stratification (Park et al, 2022). Liu et al showed that CMIP6 multi‐model mean reproduces the warm pool size well, but there is large spread among models, with models with smaller warm pool areas (larger biases) tending to simulate weaker WTP SST (Liu & Grise, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interhemispheric propagation of seasonal sea surface temperature fluctuations over the western Pacific in CMIP6

Wei,

Sun,

Guo

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the western Pacific is a critical research topic in climate change, as it can significantly impact regional and global weather patterns. Previous observational studies have shown that SST in the southwestern Pacific (SWP) can effectively serve as a precursor signal for SST in the western tropical Pacific (WTP). In this study, we evaluate and compare the modelling capabilities of 32 CMIP6 models to simulate the relationship between SWP and WTP SST. The results indicate that while some CMIP6 models can simulate the spatial connection and physical processes between the SWP and WTP, there are significant intermodel differences. Specifically, the models that best simulate the cross‐equatorial propagation of SWP SST anomalies are those that accurately simulate the cross‐equatorial wind anomalies induced by SWP SST anomalies, highlighting the key role of wind‐evaporation‐SST feedback in SST propagation. Further analysis reveals that the intermodel spread in cross‐equatorial SST propagation is attributable to model biases in simulating climatological SST and wind speed. Models with warm climatological equatorial SST and strong wind speeds provide favourable conditions for the cross‐equatorial propagation of SWP‐related SST anomalies towards the north. Warm SST and strong inter‐season wind speeds near the equator facilitate the northward propagation of the SWP warm signal, leading to increased warming in the WTP.

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Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation

Cited by 14 publications

References 58 publications

Intermodel relation between present-day warm pool intensity and future precipitation changes

Intermodel relation between present-day warm pool intensity and future precipitation changes

Implications of Warm Pool Bias in CMIP6 Models on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Subtropical Jet and Precipitation

Interhemispheric propagation of seasonal sea surface temperature fluctuations over the western Pacific in CMIP6

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