Presidential Elections, Divided Politics, and Happiness in the U.S.

Abstract

We examine the effects of the 2016 and 2012 U.S. presidential election outcomes on the subjective well-being of Democrats and Republicans using large-scale Gallup survey data and a regression discontinuity approach. We use metrics that capture two dimensions of well-being -evaluative (life satisfaction) and hedonic (positive and negative affect) -and document a significant negative impact on both dimensions of well-being for Democrats immediately following the 2016 election and a negative but much smaller impact for Republicans following the 2012 election. However, we found no equivalent positive effect for those identifying with the winning party following either election. The results also vary across gender and income groups, especially in 2016, with the negative well-being effects more prevalent among women and middle-income households. In addition, in 2016 the votes of others living in the respondent's county did not have a large impact on individual well-being, although there is some suggestive evidence that Democrats in more pro-Trump counties suffered a less negative effect, while Republicans in less pro-Trump and more typically urban counties were actually negatively impacted by the election outcome. We also find evidence that being on the losing side of the election had negative effects on perceptions about the economy, financial well-being, and the community of residence. Lastly, the evaluative well-being gaps between the different party affiliations tend to persist longer, with those in expected life satisfaction lasting until at least the end of 2016, while the hedonic well-being gaps typically dissipate within the two weeks following the election.

Worldview defence and self‐determination theory explain the return of racial voting: Evidence from the 2016 US election

“…There is a nascent literature studying the power of SWB measures to predict voting behaviour (Liberini et al., 2017, 2019; Ward, 2019). This workstream has recently turned its attention to the 2016 US Presidential election (Herrin et al., 2018; Pinto et al., 2019; Ward et al., 2020), inspired in part by Graham's (2017) analysis of SWB trends in America. She documented poor and worsening levels of stress, depression, life satisfaction and optimism in US regions now associated with Trump support.…”

“…There is a nascent literature studying the power of SWB measures to predict voting behaviour (Liberini et al, 2017(Liberini et al, , 2019Ward, 2019). This workstream has recently turned its attention to the 2016 US Presidential election (Herrin et al, 2018;Pinto et al, 2019;Ward et al, 2020), inspired in part by Graham's (2017)…”

Percepção Macroeconômica, Felicidade E Ideologia: Um Estudo De Caso Do Brasil (2010-2016)

“…Em artigo posterior, Pinto et al (2019) buscam examinar o efeito dos resultados das eleições presidenciais de 2012 e 2016 nos Estados Unidos para o bem-estar subjetivo dos Democratas e Republicanos, avaliando a felicidade em dois aspectos em relação à satisfação da vida e hedônica.…”

“…Segundo esses autores, os indivíduos com mais satisfação em suas vidas tendem a votarem e participar do processo político com demonstrações públicas nos EUA. Ainda segundo eles, os estudos de participação política e felicidade encontraram dois efeitos: (1) indivíduos que são mais satisfeitos com suas vidas são mais susceptíveis a votarem e; (2) que a ação de votar por si só pode ter um efeito positivo sobre pesquisas, sendo mais sobre as eleições do que a satisfação dos indivíduos (PINTO et al,2019).…”

The effect of presidential election outcomes on alcohol drinking

“…The fact that individuals do vote and participate in elections, despite the marginal probability of casting a pivotal vote, shows that there are psychological motivations to vote (Downs, 1957). Individuals also report a significant drop in their life satisfaction when they support the losing candidate, which shows that they are affected by election outcomes (Pinto et al, 2019).…”