Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

Blinder, Alan S.; Watson, Mark W.

doi:10.1257/aer.20140913

Cited by 166 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Studies for federal states 2 For empirical evidence based on German stock market data, see Bechtel and Füss (2010). In the United States, by contrast, stock market performance was better overall under democratic administrations than under their republican counterparts (Hibbs 1994 andBlinder andWatson 2016). 3 Surveys include Dubois (2016), De Haan and Klomp (2013), Alt and Rose (2009), Franzese and Jusko (2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies

Potrafke

2017

Journal of Comparative Economics

184

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Partisan Politics: The Empirical Evidence from OECD Panel Studies Abstract This paper describes the empirical evidence on partisan politics in OECD panel studies. I elaborate on the research designs, the measurement of government ideology and why the empirical studies do not and cannot derive causal effects. Discussing about 100 panel data studies, the results indicate that leftwing and rightwing governments pursued different economic policies until the 1990s: the size and scope of government was larger when leftwing governments were in power. Partisan politics have not disappeared since the 1990s, but have certainly become less pronounced. In particular, government ideology still seems to influence policies such as privatization and market deregulation. I discuss the consequences of declining electoral cohesion and what future research needs to explore. JEL-Codes: D720, H000, C230. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies

Potrafke

2017

Journal of Comparative Economics

184

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“…One of the few variables not to be extensively analyzed by Blinder and Watson is the exchange rate of the US dollar. We, therefore, extend the work of SCV and link it to the studies of economic growth by authors such as Blinder and Watson () and Hibbs () by studying the value of the US dollar in foreign exchange markets across US presidencies.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Blinder and Watson () conduct the broadest analysis of how macroeconomic variables are associated with the political party of the US president and find that almost all major economic indicators (e.g., GDP growth, employment, inflation, and total factor productivity) have more favorable values under Democratic presidents than Republicans. One of the few variables not to be extensively analyzed by Blinder and Watson is the exchange rate of the US dollar.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market

2019

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We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns.

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“…These events often caused economic recession and changed political leadership within the United States (Blinder and Watson, 2016). Today many news organizations and central banks around the globe follow oil price movements with intense interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks

Huntington¹

2017

The Energy Journal

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Abstract:Sustained energy price increases in the United States have preceded declines in economic activity as far back as 1890. This finding applies to two different historical GDP data sets. It suggests a much longer national experience with rising energy prices that began well before the period after World War Two. This problem emerged well before the US transition towards petroleum products when coal was an important energy source. This relationship varies with the state of the economy and appears less evident during some periods, as in the years following the 1929 stock market crash.

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Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

Cited by 166 publications

References 43 publications

Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies

Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies

U.S. presidential cycles and the foreign exchange market

The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks

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