SummaryThe CHADS 2 score has been proposed for stratifying patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) according to the risk of thromboembolism in the AHA/ACC/ESC guidelines. However, there is little information about its usefulness for predicting the long-term risk of ischemic stroke in Japanese patients with paroxysmal AF. We retrospectively evaluated the incidence of ischemic stroke and the efficacy of anticoagulant therapy in paroxysmal AF patients on rhythm control therapy who were stratified by their CHADS 2 score. The subjects were 334 NVAF patients (229 men and 105 women, mean age, 68 ± 12 years, mean follow-up period, 60 ± 35 months) who were categorized into low risk (score 0), moderate risk (1 or 2), and high risk (3 or more) groups for thromboembolism.The low, moderate, and high risk groups accounted for 34%, 50%, and 16% of the patients, respectively. Among 257 patients without warfarin therapy, the annual rate of symptomatic ischemic stroke was 0.6% in the score 0 group, 0.5% in the score 1 group, 3.1% in the score 2 group, and 9.6% in the score 3 or more group. Among 77 patients treated with warfarin (target PT-INR: 1.6-3.0), the stroke rate was 0% in the score 0 group, 0% in the score 1 group, 1.4% in the score 2 group, and 6.6% in the score 3 or more group. The annual rate of ischemic stroke was 0.88% in patients treated with warfarin versus 2.67% in those without warfarin, or a decrease in risk of 68% with warfarin (P < 0.01). In Japanese patients with paroxysmal AF, the CHADS 2 score is useful for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke. Anticoagulant therapy is needed to prevent ischemic stroke in patients with paroxysmal AF, especially those who have a CHADS 2 score of 2 or more. (Int Heart J 2010; 51: 24-29)Key words: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, Thromboembolism, Anticoagulant therapy, Antiarrhythmic therapy, CHADS 2 score A ccording to the results of epidemiological studies in Western countries, the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is approximately 4% and 10% among persons in their seventies and eighties, respectively, showing a marked increase with age. 1) In Japan, the proportion of elderly in the population is increasing rapidly, and the incidence of AF has increased markedly compared with that in the 1980s to approximately 2% and 3.2% among persons in their seventies and eighties, respectively, although it is still less than half of the incidence reported in Western countries.2) Since the incidence of AF will continue to increase in the future, AF is recognized as a significant medical and social problem.AF is often encountered in routine medical practice and is an arrhythmia that should be actively treated and controlled, because it not only causes cardiovascular complications, including thromboembolism and heart failure, 3) but also decreases the survival of patients with impaired left ventricular function. 4) In Western countries, to prevent ischemic stroke as a serious complication of nonvalvular AF, risk stratification is performed based on the CHADS 2 score and an...