Objective: To assess whether the risk of incidence of Alzheimer disease (AD) varies over time. The increase in numbers of people at the oldest ages in the population will bring an increase in the number of people with AD. Projections of the size of the increase assume the risk of AD is constant.Methods: All persons age 65 or older in a biracial, geographically defined area were invited to participate in a home interview every 3 years. From the approximately 10,000 participants, stratified random samples were selected for detailed clinical evaluation. At each cycle, individuals determined free of AD in a previous cycle, either by examination or by high score on cognitive function tests, were sampled in the subsequent cycle for evaluation for incident AD. The evaluations for disease were structured and uniform across time. These analyses include 1,695 subjects evaluated for incident disease from 1997 through 2008.Results: AD developed in 360 participants. Change over time in risk of incident disease was assessed in logistic regression analyses including evaluation date and controlling for age, gender, education, race, interval from disease-free designation to evaluation for incident disease, and sample design. The time variable (in years) was not significant (odds ratio ϭ 0.970, 95% confidence interval ϭ 0.902 to 1.044).
Conclusions:The null relation of evaluation date to disease incidence suggests no recent change in risk of AD over time, and supports this assumption for projections of AD. Neurology Alzheimer disease (AD) has severe consequences for both the individuals involved and the burden on the health care system. Projections of the number of cases over time assumed that the risk of AD would remain constant. 1,2 Evidence for an increasing or decreasing risk of disease would demonstrate the need for revised projections.Studies of the possible changes in AD risk over time have had differing results. Some articles reported that the incidence or prevalence remained stable over time. [3][4][5][6][7] One article reported a decline in rates, 8 while others suggested that rates increased. 9-12 These increases were particularly large when the analyses used cases identified through the Medicare system. AD also has increased as the underlying cause of death on death certificates. 13,14 While at least some of this increase was probably due to increased interest in the disease, the numbers raise disturbing questions of whether the occurrence of AD is increasing over time. In this article, we report direct assessment of change in uniformly ascertained incidence of AD over 11 years.METHODS Study population. We used data from a longitudinal study of AD among people aged 65 or older in a geographically defined community of 3 neighborhoods of Chicago, IL.