Aim
Appraisal of cancer trends is essential for future cancer control, but relevant studies in China are scarce due to a lack of long-term data. With 40-years of cancer registry data, we sought to evaluate secular time trends in incidence and mortality of gynecological cancers in an urban Chinese population.
Materials and methods
Data on incidence and mortality of invasive cervical, uterine and ovarian cancer were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women aged 20–84 in urban Shanghai between 1973 and 2012. Age-period-cohort Poisson regression models were used to evaluate age, period and cohort effects. Overall linear trends, interpreted as the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), were derived from the net drift in age-drift models.
Results
Overall, cervical cancer incidence and mortality substantially decreased (EAPC=−4.5% and −5.5%, respectively); however, an upward trend was apparent among younger women (age<60). Uterine cancer incidence increased slightly (EAPC=1.8%), while mortality decreased over time (EAPC=−2.4%). Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality both increased, although the increase in incidence (EAPC=1.8%) was larger than mortality (EAPC=0.6%). While cohort effects were most evident for cervical cancer incidence and mortality, significant age, period, and cohort effects were found for all three gynecological cancers evaluated.
Conclusions
These secular trends in incidence and mortality of gynecological cancers in Shanghai likely reflect changing risk factor profiles and improved cancer prognosis over time, and suggest new priorities and call for additional efforts for gynecological cancer prevention and control for women in China.