The current study was carried out to estimate the risk of disease probability from the consumption of foods
such as meats, poultry, unpasteurized cheeses, fruit-based drinks, ready-to-eat fruits, and typical preparations
such as Encebollado, ceviche, and Bolón de Verde contaminated with Salmonella, Escherichia coli and
Listeria monocytogenes in Ecuador using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA).
A first-order Monte Carlo simulation probabilistic distribution approach was adopted to assess the
occurrence of pathogens in the tested foods.
The scenario was simulated using the concentration levels concerning the contaminant and food consumption
obtained through an online survey with a sample size of 202 people.
A model (100,000 iterations) was run and created in an Excel spreadsheet using @Risk software. The results
obtained are the risk of infection (possibilities of becoming infected by eating the food evaluated) and the
contaminant dose per portion consumed.
Additionally, an exponential model with a single dose was used for risk characterization to determine the
probability of becoming ill from contaminated food.
The QMRA model performed a prediction for the mean risk of Salmonella infection from ground beef
consumption of 1.33 E - 04 log 10 cfu / serving, while the exponential model estimated a value of 1.0 log cfu
- serving. In the case of Listeria monocytogenes, the QMRA estimated an average probability of infection in
unpasteurized fresh cheese of 5.9E-05 compared to the average disease risk estimated in the risk
characterization for L. monocytogenes of 9.50E-13.
The QMRA estimated an average risk of infection by E. coli for Encebollado and ceviches of 5.6E
-03 compared to the average risk of disease estimated in the risk characterization for Escherichia coli of
0.387 log cfu -ration. These results suggest the need to adopt effective mitigation strategies. Control
parameters such as temperature during the supply chain and good hygiene practices during manufacturing
can effectively control food-associated pathogens. More data is necessary toimprove the evaluation of the
risk developed.
Keywords: Microbiological risk análisis, Infectious biological agents (Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes,
Escherichia coli), QMRA (Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment), Typical foods in Ecuador, Population
food consumption in three main cities of Ecuador.