Prevalence of Seismic Rate Anomalies Preceding Volcanic Eruptions in Alaska

Pesicek, J. D.; Wellik, John J.; Prejean, S. G.; Ogburn, S. E.

doi:10.3389/feart.2018.00100

Cited by 29 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…Although many events in our list barely meet this standard, other volcanoes have more dense seismic networks with as many as 17 instruments [Spurr has 17; Okmok and Akutan follow with 13], allowing for better detection of subtle seismic precursors . Seismic monitoring status at time of event is based on network health analyses by Pesicek et al (2018) and Buurman, et al (2014). For those events with seismic monitoring, we also briefly examine whether or not precursory seismicity was detected by our network, as do Pesicek et al (2018).…”

Section: Seismic Monitoringmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to look broadly across an entire arc's worth of eruptions, we focus on one important aspect of volcano monitoring: was a formal notice of warning issued prior to the onset of the eruption? Complementing this paper, a detailed analysis of the time lag between individual explosions and AVO calldowns is found in Power and Cameron (2018), and an analysis of seismic rate anomalies preceding Alaska eruptions is in Pesicek et al (2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

et al. 2018

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Section: Seismic Monitoringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

et al. 2018

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“…Geophysical Research Letters,45,11,658. https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2018GL079909 Pesicek et al (2018) examine the relationship between increased rates of seismicity and volcanic activity at the volcano. They find that only one of the seven most recent eruptions displayed a statistically significant increase in volcano tectonic seismicity preceding onset.…”

Section: Citationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The permanent network has been operational since late 2002 and has observed the eruptive cycles of the seven most recent Veniaminof eruptions. Pesicek et al () examine the relationship between increased rates of seismicity and volcanic activity at the volcano. They find that only one of the seven most recent eruptions displayed a statistically significant increase in volcano tectonic seismicity preceding onset.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring Magma Dynamics at Veniaminof Volcano Via Application of Ambient Noise

Bennington

Haney

Thurber

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Ambient noise interferometry has become an increasingly popular tool for monitoring active volcanoes. We apply this method to investigate seven past eruptive periods at Veniaminof volcano, Alaska. Two of the largest eruptions studied show seismic velocity changes associated with preeruptive , coeruptive, and posteruptive volcanic processes. We develop and implement new analysis techniques to determine how seismic velocity changes at Veniaminof are distributed with depth. Spatiotemporal examination of these seismic velocity changes reveals evidence for the distribution of magma storage and the timescale at which magmatic fluids intrude into and reside within these storage regions in the months preceding eruption. We conduct the depth analysis using data recorded on a single seismometer. The same analysis could be applied to any volcano monitored by at least one seismometer in order to detect magmatic activity indicative of impending eruption, specifically the intrusion and migration of magmatic fluids into the volcanic system.

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“…These examples highlight the challenge and importance of forecasting not only the onset of volcanic activity but also its style/magnitude and duration—information upon which evacuation strategies are commonly based (e.g., Bebbington & Jenkins, ; Papale & Marzocchi, ; Wolpert et al, ). At present, however, volcanologists have found it most feasible to forecast either the onset of eruptions at closed‐system volcanoes that have repose periods of decades or longer (e.g., Cameron et al, ; Pesicek et al, ), or repeating eruptive behavior over much shorter time scales (e.g., Blake & Cortés, ; Connor et al, ; Jenkins et al, ; Kamo & Ishihara, ; Ripepe et al, ; Swanson et al, ). This is largely due to the fact that dormant volcanoes are most likely to show signs of “waking up,” and that most forecasting efforts are rooted in pattern recognition, where patterns are thought to record specific subsurface processes such as magma ascent (e.g., White & McCausland, ).…”

Section: Forecasting Volcanic Activity: a Tractable Problem For Scienmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

Poland

Anderson

2020

JGR Solid Earth

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A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long-term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter-term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations-particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks-should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

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Prevalence of Seismic Rate Anomalies Preceding Volcanic Eruptions in Alaska

Cited by 29 publications

References 54 publications

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

Inferring Magma Dynamics at Veniaminof Volcano Via Application of Ambient Noise

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

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