Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses

Abstract

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example.MethodsA population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario.ResultsT2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8–33.7%, incidence by 8.4–38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1–13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–2.8%, incidence by 0.5–3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1–0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–6.9%, incidence by 0.5–7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2–2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3–9.2%, incidence by 4.2–11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9–5.2%.ConclusionsMajor reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

Physical Activity, Screen-Based Sedentary Behavior and Physical Fitness in Chinese Adolescents: A Cross-Sectional Study

“…Physical fitness has become a crucial prognosticator of adolescent health (1) and significantly associated with gauges of health such as cardiovascular health (2), cognitive capability and psychological well-being (3). Relevant studies indicate that physical inactivity is not only an independent risk factor for chronic diseases such as hypertension (4), heart disease (5) and 2 diabetes mellitus (6), but also has a serious negative impact on physical fitness, which leads to massive social issues (7). Globally, 80% of adolescents are lacking in physical activity; "low physical activity-high sedentary time" has become a widely-used descriptor of current physical inactivity among adolescents (8)(9)(10).…”

8-year post operative survival after penile prothesis implantation: Less than expected perioperative risk.

“…There is an expected rise of the prevalence of diabetes in Qatar, i.e., from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 (25), which requires great efforts to be under control. A similar study in Saudi Arabia discovered that 71% of their patients exhibited HbA1c greater than 7% and associated with the increasing severity of ED and IHD which augmented their morbidities (9).…”

Factores Modificables Y Riesgo De Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 en Adultos Jóvenes: Un Estudio Transversal

“…La aproximación al pronóstico del riesgo de DM2 y sus factores relacionados representa ganancia para la población y para el sistema de salud tanto a nivel nacional como mundial, dado que permite controlar su aparición y retrasar las complicaciones asociadas a esta enfermedad (5,6) . Dentro de los aportes realizados con esta investigación, destaca el hallazgo de sujetos con glicemia en ayunas alterada, la alta proporción (12,4%) de la población con riesgo moderado a alto de DM2 (puntaje FINDRISC ≥12) y el elevado porcentaje de individuos expuestos a factores de riesgo en su mayoría modi cables.…”

“…Se ha demostrado que el manejo temprano de pacientes con DM2 retrasa y reduce la incidencia de complicaciones derivadas de la enfermedad (4) . Así mismo, es posible reducir sensiblemente los impactos de DM2 mediante intervención sobre factores de riesgo frecuentes en población sana (5,6) . Entre los factores de riesgo para el desarrollo de DM2 se encuentran los no modi cables como la edad y predisposición genética, y los modi cables que incluyen el sobrepeso/ obesidad, alimentación inadecuada y sedentarismo.…”