Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change

Abstract

BACKGROUND Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824), as a model organism. RESULTS Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents. CONCLUSION Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high‐risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Study on the Potential Distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata and Its Natural Enemy Picromerus bidens Under Climate Change

“…The list of the geographical locations of the ports was obtained from the WFP GeoNode database (WFP GeoNode, 2017). The binary map was subsequently intersected with the airports and ports information to determine the possible CPB and P. bidens introduction routes (Marchioro and Krechemer, 2021).…”

Suitable areas for invasive insect pests in Brazil and the potential impacts for eucalyptus forestry

“…A methodology similar to the one used by Marchioro and Krechemer 9 was used to produce maps representing the risk of invasion by eucalyptus pests based on the estimated climate suitability for each species and introduction threat maps obtained from Early et al 25 The introduction threat map results from the combination of information on airport and seaport capacity, international trade, and total imports between 2000 and 2009. 25 The original map representing the introduction threat was converted into a continuous map expressing values between 0 (no risk) and 1 (high risk).…”

“…Ecological niche models (ENMs) are commonly used to estimate suitable areas for potentially invasive species based on the association of species' occurrence records and environmental variables 8 . Once the model is developed, it can be projected into different regions of interest to estimate suitable areas for invasive species in new territories 9 . ENMs can be integrated with information about the likelihoods of introduction and establishment to generate invasion risk maps 9, 10 .…”

“…8 Once the model is developed, it can be projected into different regions of interest to estimate suitable areas for invasive species in new territories. 9 ENMs can be integrated with information about the likelihoods of introduction and establishment to generate invasion risk maps. 9,10 Such information can be applied in the adoption of phytosanitary measures aiming to prevent new invasions.…”

“…9 ENMs can be integrated with information about the likelihoods of introduction and establishment to generate invasion risk maps. 9,10 Such information can be applied in the adoption of phytosanitary measures aiming to prevent new invasions. This is particularly important considering that it is widely accepted that preventing new invasions is more costeffective than eradicating a species once it invaded a new area, as the costs arising from the impacts of biological invasions are cumulative over time, and many invasive species are not viable for eradication once the problem is widespread.…”