The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for pressure ulcer (PU) development in a high‐risk nursing home population receiving evidence‐based PU prevention. This study was part of a randomised controlled trial examining the (cost‐)effectiveness of static air support surfaces compared with alternating pressure air mattresses. The sample consisted of 308 residents at a high risk of PU development (presence of non‐blanchable erythema, Braden score ≤ 12 or Braden subscale “mobility” ≤ 2). PU incidence was monitored for 14 days. Demographic variables; functional, physical, and psychological characteristics; and data on skin assessment were collected. Independent risk factors were identified using multiple logistic regression analysis. The overall PU incidence (category II‐IV) was 8.4% (n = 26), and 1.9% (n = 6) of the residents developed a deep PU (category III‐IV). PUs (category II‐IV) were significantly associated with non‐blanchable erythema, a lower Braden score, and pressure area‐related pain in high‐risk residents even if preventive care was provided. These results highlight the need of a systematic risk assessment, including pain assessment and skin observations, in order to determine and tailor preventive care to the needs of high‐risk individuals.