Previsão De Fabricação De Carros Bicombustíveis E De Demanda De Etanol No Brasil Em 2014

Abstract

Brazil is currently an important world example of the successful incorporation of biofuel (ethanol) into its energy matrix. This article aims to estimate ethanol demand and the evolution of the total share of vehicles that are expected to use this technology in the Brazilian fleet by 2014. To do this, the authors used the Gompertz and the Fisher-Pry methods, both having been verified using the STATA statistical system. Pry model was used to build the scenario of analysis of the replacement of conventional gasoline vehicle technology by flex fuel or bi-fuel technology. This estimate indicated an 18.2 percent growth over five years, from the 78.period, ethanol was marketed at a price lower than the minimum required to make it competitive with gasoline for 88 of out of 95 months. TheGompertz model indicated that ethanol should account for roughly 43.9% of all the fuel marketed by the distributors by the end of 2014, whereas this share, at present, stands at 18.2% only.