Price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption: what is the association of price and economic activity with cigarette consumption in Spain from 1957 to 2016?

Álvarez, Juan Manuel Martín; Golpe, Antonio A.; Iglesias, Javier; Ingelmo, R.

doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2020.05.059

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…As per capita income increased by 1%, the demand for tobacco increased by around 0.35%. This estimate is very similar to the estimates of income elasticity of tobacco demand at 0.3 to 0.4 in other studies such as Gallet and List (2003) [ 35 ], Martinez and colleagues (2015) [ 37 ], Álvarez and colleagues (2020) [ 38 ].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

The impact of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam

Nguyen

2021

PLoS ONE

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Vietnam is one of countries with the highest number of smokers in the world and the high smoking prevalence among men in the region. Although the real cigarette prices increased by around 4% during the 2010–2015 period, the prevalence of daily cigarette smoking among men decreased slightly from 31.3% to 30.7% during this period. This raises the question of whether cigarette consumption is sensitive to price. In this study, we estimated the effect of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam. We found that a one-percent increase in the real cigarette price reduced the probability of cigarette smoking among males by 0.08 percentage points (95% CI from -0.06 to -0.10), equivalent to the price elasticity of the smoking prevalence at -0.26 (95% CI from -0.16% to -0.33%). Using this estimate, we predict that if the cigarette price is increased by 10%, the daily cigarette smoking prevalence among men would decrease from 30.7% to 29.9% and the number of male smokers would decline by around 270 thousand. Higher cigarette prices also reduced per capita tobacco expenditure of households. A one-percent increase in the cigarette price decreased per capita expenditure on tobacco consumption expenditure of households by 0.43 percent (the 95% CI from -0.029 to 0.822). This finding suggests that raising tobacco taxes and prices can be an effective measure to reduce tobacco use.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

The impact of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam

Nguyen

2021

PLoS ONE

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“…It should also be noted that we did not evaluate how changes in income within a country over the 40-year timeframe considered may change tobacco consumption and subsequently COPD burden. For example, economic recessions have been shown to be associated with significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking 29 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Fuertes

Marcon

Potts

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool “DYNAMO-HIA”, this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.

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“…In other words, all province tends to be used to predict a chosen province without including the predicted one. As is common to explain the behavior of tobacco consumption in Spain (see [24][25][26] ), the dependent variable is the per capita tobacco sales for every province and the independent variables are the per capita GDP and price:…”

Section: Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

Cadahia¹,

Golpe²,

Álvarez³

et al. 2021

Tob. Induc. Dis.

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INTRODUCTION There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values. METHODS To achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. RESULTS The magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values. CONCLUSIONS Cooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.

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Price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption: what is the association of price and economic activity with cigarette consumption in Spain from 1957 to 2016?

Cited by 15 publications

References 45 publications

The impact of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam

The impact of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam

Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

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