Price Responsiveness of Shale Oil: A Bakken Case Study

Abstract

We estimated oil supply from hydraulically fractured horizontal wells completed in North Dakota from March 2015 through May 2019. We modeled impacts on production of price, capital costs, technological progress, well-to-well interference, and location. Two models were developed: One considered production to be a continuous stream (omitting gaps) and the other allowed that production may be discontinuous, with starts, shut-ins, and re-starts. Both gave estimates of price elasticity higher than that of non-OPEC oil supply in general. We confirmed the rapid decline rates from early peaks that characterize shale wells and demonstrated that, although various factors can shift production up or down, the decline rate remains consistent. Given this, and a much shorter development time, shale oil can be ramped up and down more quickly than conventional oil in North America today. Consequently, the price response of shale oil tends to dampen the long-term price cycle and moderate the price shocks that have plagued the market, and the macroeconomy.

Новый Импульс Азиатской России: Источники И Средства Разви-Тия. В 2-Х Томах. Т. 1

“…Разработанные модели оценки инвестиционных проектов в добыче нефти (с учетом специфики ТРИЗ, например, в части динамики разработки запасов, налоговых условий) позволяют оценивать эффективность проектов с точки зрения основных участников -нефтяных компаний, ресурсных регионов, федерального центра. В качестве исходной информации были использованы доступные техникоэкономические параметры проектов освоения ТРИЗ за рубежом и в России [115][116][117]; прогнозы (нефтяных компаний, органов власти федерального и регионального уровней) объемов добычи ТРИЗ.…”

Hard-to-recover oil reserves in the context of sustainable development of resource regions

“…The developed models for evaluating oil production projects (taking into account the specifics of HROR, for example, in terms of the dynamics of development of reserves, tax conditions) evaluate the effectiveness of projects for oil companies and resource regions. Available technical and economic parameters of HROR development projects abroad and in Russia and forecasts (of oil companies, federal and regional authorities) of the volumes of HROR production were used as initial information [6,7,8].…”

Evolution of the Anisotropic Thermophysical Performance for Low-Maturity Oil Shales at an Elevated Temperature and Its Implications for Restoring Oil Development

“…The globally growing requirement of the crude oil/gas supply has provoked visible manifestations of the energy revolution, with grabbing hydrocarbon from a tight shale reservoir being one of such. , Basically, shale oil development has been made viable thanks to the technique of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, allowing oil to efficiently be extracted from shale rock, usually low permeability. , The successful utilization of shale oil greatly meets the energy demand of the United States, and it motivates other countries hoping to advance the energy supply. , In China, the shale oil development has gathered momentum in recent years and has yielded some positive results: the shale oil production reached 400 × 10 4 t in 2023; these achievements are mainly contributed from the oil shales in the high-maturity phase. ,, However, the oil shales in low-mature stage received limited breakthroughs, where the hydrocarbons trapped in shale rock are not flowable and, thus, can hardly be extracted directly via horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing technology. − …”